Population models and projections

Teacher(s)

Masquelier Bruno;

Language

French

Content

The LDEMO 2220 course is an in-depth introduction to modelling and population projection methods. At the end of this course, students will be able 
- to understand what a demographic model is and provide several illustrations,
- to describe and compare the main models used in demography, which summarize the age distribution of different vital events or the relationships between population structure and movement,
- to carry out population projections with the appropriate tools (Excel, R and the Spectrum software),
- to understand the influence of changes in the components of population dynamics (fertility, mortality and migration) on population changes (volume and structure) at different geographical levels and time horizons,
- to critically interpret the results of existing population projections.
Topics covered:
- Principles and utility of modelling and simulation in demography.
- Stable populations and their use.    
- Mathematical methods of extrapolation.
- The cohort-component projection method. 
- Mortality modelling and projections: extrapolation of age-specific rates, use of model life tables, Lee and Carter's (1992) method. 
- Fertility modelling and projections: rate extrapolation, use of model fertility schedules, period approach vs. cohort approach. 
- Migration modelling and projections: projections of net migrants, migration rates. 
- Uncertainties in projections: comparison of scenarios, comparison of perspectives of different producers, ex-post analyses.     
- Extensions: multi-state models (household composition, projections by the level of education) and micro-simulation models.

Teaching methods

The course is structured around a project carried out in pairs of students. This project involves the complete realization of a population projection for a country or region, based on a given scenario. Students collect data, develop and apply the appropriate methodology to achieve their objectives. Working sessions are organized to discuss the main orientations for the work, answer specific questions, present and discuss the intermediate results of the project.

Evaluation methods

Students' achievements are assessed on the basis of 

• Three presentations of intermediate and final results, with the evaluation criteria being clarity of the oral presentation, quality of the slides, link to the content of lectures and the course, quality of the analysis. Presentations account for 30% of the final grade.
• A complete report to be written by pairs. This involves preparing population projections for the country or region of the selected scenario, comparing the results obtained with several scenarios by varying the assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration, and selecting about five or six scenarios, justifying the different scenarios and comparing the results of the projections with those obtained by other producers (United Nations, statistical office of the selected country, or others). 
• In case of failure in the first session, only the report is evaluated for 100% of the grade (the grades acquired during the presentations are no longer included in the final grade). 

Bibliography

Barsotti, O. & A. Bonaguidi. Hypothèses pour les projections de migration. Dans Démographie. Analyse et synthèse, volume V, pages 329-333. INED, 2004.
Caselli, G. Projections de mortalité : hypothèses et méthodes. Dans Démographie. Analyse et synthèse, volume V, pages 301-322. INED, 2004.
Preston S., P. Heuveline, et M. Guillot. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Blackwell, 2001
Rowland, D. Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford University Press, 2003
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. UN DESA/POP/2024/TR/NO. 3.
Van Imhoff, E. & W. Post. Méthodes de micro-simulation pour des projections de population. Population, 4 :889-932, 1997.
van Raalte AA. What have we learned about mortality patterns over the past 25 years? Popul Stud (Camb). 2021 Dec;75(sup1):105-132.
Vaupel, J. W.; Villavicencio, F. & Bergeron-Boucher, M.-P. Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021, 118, e2019536118
Vollset, Stein Emil et al., Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, The Lancet, Volume 396, Issue 10258, 1285 - 1306
 

Faculty or entity

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