Rare event simulation techniques and extreme heatwaves in general circulation models: applications and perspectives for predictability studies by Francesco Ragone

Studying rare extreme events in the climate system is extremely challenging, since it is often impossible to have observational data or to run numerical simulations long enough to sample a sufficient number of events to have a reliable statistics. We have recently shown how, in the case of numerical modelling, this problem can be tackled using rare event algorithms, numerical tools developed in the past decades in statistical physics to reduce the computational effort required to sample rare events in dynamical systems. Here I will show a few applications of these methods to the study of extreme heatwaves in the climate models Plasim and CESM, and I will discuss how these and other techniques from statistical physics could be helpful to perform seasonal to decadal predictability studies of different climatic processes.