Midi de la recherche

05 décembre 2017

Collège J. Leclercq

Bruno Masquelier (DEMO, UCL), Global, regional, and national levels and trends in mortality among older children and young adolescents from 1990 to 2016

à 12h45, au LECL 61

 

Under-five mortality was reduced by half between 1990 to 2015 and there is now a solid evidence base to monitor progress towards child survival goals. By contrast, comparatively little is known on how risks of dying among older children and young adolescents have evolved over recent years. To estimate levels and trends in mortality in children aged 5-14 years for 195 countries, mortality rates were obtained from nationally representative birth histories, recent household deaths reported in population censuses, nationwide vital registration and sample registration systems. These data were used in a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model to generate smoothed trends with 90% uncertainty intervals. Globally, the probability of dying between the ages 5 and 15 was 7.5 deaths per 1000 children aged 5 in 2016, corresponding to 18% of the risk of dying between birth and the fifth birthday. Between 1990 and 2016, the annual number of deaths declined from 1.7 million to 1 million. Deaths of older children are increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.