Midis de la recherche

Bruno Schoumaker (DEMO, UCLouvain)
Fertility dynamics by educational level and disruptions in educational progress: Unraveling the link between education and fertility stalls in Sub-Saharan Africa

Since the late 1990s, several countries in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced halts and reversals in fertility decline. This presentation dissects the link between fertility stagnation and education trends in 34 countries. Using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), we first reconstruct fertility trends by level of education since the 1980s. We then apply a decomposition method to analyse how changes in the educational composition of the population have affected fertility rates at the national level, particularly during periods of fertility stagnation. Our results indicate that, in most cases, compositional effects have a minimal or negligible impact on fertility stagnation. On the other hand, fertility stagnation appears to be a collective phenomenon since it affects all educational strata in most of the countries experiencing this demographic pattern.

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