ELIC
Place Louis Pasteur 3/L4.03.08
1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
- Accueil
- Répertoire
- Michel Crucifix
Michel Crucifix
Professeur
Directeur de recherche FNRS
Michel Crucifix a research director with the National Fund of Scientific Research, and part-time professor at the Université catholique de Louvain where he leads the school of physics.
Michel holds a master in Physics (1998), a PhD in Sciences (2002) and was previously employed as palaeoclimate research scientist by the UK Met Office Hadley Center (2002-2006). He is editor of Earth System Dynamics, associate editor of Reviews of Geophysics, and member of the Belgian Royal Academy of Science and Fine Arts since 2015.
- Diplômes
Année Label Institution 1998 Diplôme de licence en physique Facultés Universitaires Notre Dame de la Paix à Namur 1999 Diplômé d'études approfondies en physique Université catholique de Louvain 2002 Docteur en sciences Université catholique de Louvain
Michel Crucifix leads the school of Physics at UCLouvain and in this capacity he is in charge of the teaching programme of physics to bachelor and master students. Besides, he teaches meteorology, simulation methods, ocean and atmosphere dynamics.
- Les cours
Michel Crucifix has been working on climate dynamics and palaeoclimates since 1998, and specialised in modelling the dynamics of the climate system, with a focus on the phenomenon of ice ages, variability and tipping points. He currently leads the workpackage on optimal decision making in a EU H2020 project on tipping points.
Team MembersMarina Martinez : post-doctoral research assistant, physicist (EU-2020 TIPES)
Sergio Rubin : post-doctoral research assistant, biologist (Gaia theory)
Lilian Vanderveken : PhD Student and teaching assistant, vegetation-climate interactions
Alexandre Noel, Master student, Dynamical systems and Phanerozoic Climates
Victor Couplet, Master student, Dynamical systems and the last Glacial Climates
Corentin Visée, Master student in geography, climate reconstructions over the last millennium
Verbitsky, Mikhail ; Crucifix, Michel. ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 12, p. 63-67 (2021). doi:10.5194/esd-12-63-2021.
von der Heydt, Anna S. ; Ashwin, Peter ; Camp, Charles D. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Dijkstra, Henk A. ; Ditlevsen, Peter ; Lenton, Timothy M.. Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record. In: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 197, p. 103399 (2021). doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399.
Lenton, Timothy M. ; Kohler, Timothy A. ; Marquet, Pablo A. ; Boyle, Richard A. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wilkinson, David M. ; Scheffer, Marten. Survival of the Systems. In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, (2021). doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.12.003 (Accepté/Sous presse).
Jebeile, Julie ; Crucifix, Michel. Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements. In: Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, Vol. 83, p. 44-52 (2020). doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.03.001.
Alexandrov, Dmitri V. ; Bashkirtseva, Irina A. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Ryashko, Lev B.. Nonlinear climate dynamics: From deterministic behaviour to stochastic excitability and chaos. In: Physics Reports, (2020). doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2020.11.002 (Accepté/Sous presse).
Verbitsky, Mikhail Y. ; Crucifix, Michel. Pi-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, no.1, p. 281-289 (2020). doi:10.5281/zenodo.3473957.
Ditlevsen, Peter ; Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel. Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models. In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, no. 3-4, p. 1801-1818 (2020). doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05087-3.
Sun, Youbin ; Yin, Qiuzhen ; Crucifix, Michel ; Clemens, Steven C. ; Araya-Melo, P. ; Liu, W. ; Qiuang, X. ; Zhao, H. ; Liang. L. ; Chen, H. ; Li, Y. ; Zhang, L. ; Dong, G. ; Zhon, W. ; Berger, André ; Zhisheng, A.. Diverse manifestations of the Mid-Pleistocene climate transition. In: Nature Communications, (2019).
Verbitsky, Mikhail Y. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Volobuev, Dmitry M.. ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, no.2, p. 257-260 (2019). doi:10.5194/esd-10-257-2019.
Carson, J. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Preston, S. P. ; Wilkinson, R. D.. Quantifying age and model uncertainties in palaeoclimate data and dynamical climate models with a joint inferential analysis. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 475, no.2224, p. 20180854 (2019). doi:10.1098/rspa.2018.0854. doi:10.5281/zenodo.1973118.
Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel. A general theory on frequency and time–frequency analysis of irregularly sampled time series based on projection methods – Part 1: Frequency analysis. In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 25, no.1, p. 145-173 (2018). doi:10.5194/npg-25-145-2018.
Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel. A general theory on frequency and time–frequency analysis of irregularly sampled time series based on projection methods – Part 2: Extension to time–frequency analysis. In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 25, no.1, p. 175-200 (2018). doi:10.5194/npg-25-175-2018.
Verbitsky, Mikhail Y. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Volobuev, Dmitry M.. A theory of Pleistocene glacial rhythmicity. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, no.3, p. 1025-1043 (2018). doi:10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018.
Carson, Jake ; Crucifix, Michel ; Preston, Simon ; Wilkinson, Richard D.. Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 67, p. 25-54 (2017). doi:10.1111/rssc.12222.
Mitsui, Takahito ; Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel. Is the glacial climate scale invariant?. In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, (2019). doi:10.1093/climsys/dzy011.
Erb, Michael P. ; Jackson, Charles S. ; Broccoli, Anthony J. ; Lea, David W. ; Valdes, Paul J. ; Crucifix, Michel ; DiNezio, Pedro N.. Model evidence for a seasonal bias in Antarctic ice cores. In: Nature Communications, Vol. 9, no.1, p. 1361 (2018). doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03800-0.
Kageyama, Masa ; Braconnot, Pascale ; Harrison, Sandy P. ; Haywood, Alan M. ; Jungclaus, Johann H. ; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. ; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves ; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako ; Albani, Samuel ; Bartlein, Patrick J. ; Brierley, Chris ; Crucifix, Michel ; Dolan, Aisling ; Fernandez-Donado, Laura ; Fischer, Hubertus ; Hopcroft, Peter O. ; Ivanovic, Ruza F. ; Lambert, Fabrice ; Lunt, Daniel J. ; Mahowald, Natalie M. ; Peltier, W. Richard ; Phipps, Steven J. ; Roche, Didier M. ; Schmidt, Gavin A. ; Tarasov, Lev ; Valdes, Paul J. ; Zhang, Qiong ; Zhou, Tianjun. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan. In: Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, no.3, p. 1033-1057 (2018). doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018.
Steffen, Will ; Rockström, Johan ; Richardson, Katherine ; Lenton, Timothy M. ; Folke, Carl ; Liverman, Diana ; Summerhayes, Colin P. ; Barnosky, Anthony D. ; Cornell, Sarah E. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Donges, Jonathan F. ; Fetzer, Ingo ; Lade, Steven J. ; Scheffer, Marten ; Winkelmann, Ricarda ; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, no.33, p. 8252-8259 (2018). doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115.
Tzedakis, P. C. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Mitsui, T. ; Wolff, E. W.. A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials. In: Nature : international weekly journal of science, Vol. 542, no.7642, p. 427-432 (2017). doi:10.1038/nature21364.
De Vleeschouwer, David ; Vahlenkamp, Maximilian ; Crucifix, Michel ; Pälike, Heiko. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m.y.. In: Geology (Boulder), Vol. 45, no.4, p. 375-378 (2017). doi:10.1130/G38663.1.
Carson, Jake ; Crucifix, Michel ; preston, simon ; Wilkinson, Richard. Bayesian model selection for the glacial–interglacial cycle. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics, , p. 34 p.. doi:10.1111/rssc.12222.
Crucifix, Michel ; de Vernal, Anne ; Franzke, Christian. Centennial climate change: The unknown variability zone. In: Past Global Changes Magazine, Vol. 25, p. 133-133 (2017). doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.133.
Lord, Natalie S. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Lunt, Dan J. ; Thorne, Mike C. ; Bounceur, Nabila ; Dowsett, Harry ; O'Brien, Charlotte L. ; Ridgwell, Andy. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 13, p. 1539-1571 (2017). doi:10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017.
Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study. In: Climate Dynamics, (2016). doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z.
Ditlevsen, Peter ; Crucifix, Michel. On the importance of centennial variability for ice ages. In: Past Global Changes Magazine, Vol. 25, p. 152-153 (2017). doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.152.
Valdes, Paul J. ; Armstrong, Edward ; Badger, Marcus P. S. ; Bradshaw, Catherine D. ; Bragg, Fran ; Crucifix, Michel ; Davies-Barnard, Taraka ; Day, Jonathan J. ; Farnsworth, Alex ; Gordon, Chris ; Hopcroft, Peter O. ; Kennedy, Alan T. ; Lord, Natalie S. ; Lunt, Dan J. ; Marzocchi, Alice ; Parry, Louise M. ; Pope, Vicky ; Roberts, William H. G. ; Stone, Emma J. ; Tourte, Gregory J. L. ; Williams, Jonny H. T.. The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0. In: Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, p. 3715-3743 (2017). doi:10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017.
Moldwin, Mark B. ; Florindo, Fabio ; Okin, Gregory ; Robock, Alan ; Rohling, Eelco J. ; Cardenas, Bayani ; Carlton, Annmarie ; Chen, Kate Huihsuan ; Crucifix, Michel ; Gettelman, Andrew ; Hubbard, Alun ; Katsura, Tomoo ; Painter, Thomas H.. Why and How to Write a High-Impact Review Paper: Lessons From Eight Years of Editorial Board Service to Reviews of Geophysics. In: Reviews of Geophysics, (2017). doi:10.1002/2017rg000587.
Bathiany, Sebastian ; Dijkstra, Henk ; Crucifix, Michel ; Dakos, Vasilis ; Brovkin, Victor ; Williamson, Mark S. ; Lenton, Timothy M. ; Scheffer, Marten. Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change. In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, Vol. 1, no. 1, p. dzw004 (2016). doi:10.1093/climsys/dzw004.
Lovejoy, S. ; Crucifix, Michel ; De Vernal, A.. Characterizing Climate Fluctuations over Wide-Scale Ranges. In: Eos, Vol. 97 (2016). doi:10.1029/2016eo055791.
Crucifix, Michel. Climate science: Earth's narrow escape from a big freeze. In: Nature : international weekly journal of science, Vol. 529, no.7585, p. 162-163 (2016). doi:10.1038/529162a.
Berger, André ; Crucifix, Michel ; Hodell, D.A. ; Mangili, C. ; McManus, J.F. ; Otto-Bliesner, B. ; Pol, K. ; Raynaud, D. ; Skinner, L.C. ; Tzedakis, P.C. ; Wolff, E.W. ; Yin, Qiuzhen. Interglacials of the last 800,000 years. In: Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 54, no.1, p. 162-219 (2016). doi:10.1002/2015RG000482.
von der Heydt, A. S. ; Dijkstra, H. A. ; van de Wal, R. S. ; Caballero, R. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Foster, G. L. ; Huber, M. ; Köhler, P. ; Rohling, E. ; Valdes, P.. Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. In: Current Climate Change Reports, (2016). doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3.
Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel ; Aihara, K.. Bifurcations and strange non chaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial-interglacial cycles. In: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena.
Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel ; Aihara, Kazuyuki. Bifurcations and strange nonchaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial–interglacial cycles. In: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol. 306, p. 25-33 (2015). doi:10.1016/j.physd.2015.05.007.
Araya Melo, Pablo Andrés ; Crucifix, Michel ; Bounceur, Nabila. Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 11, no.11, p. 45-61 (12/01/2015). doi:10.5194/cp-11-45-2015.
Bounceur, Nabila ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wilkinson, R. D.. Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 6, no.1, p. 205-224 (2015). doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015.
Regoli, Fabienne ; de Garidel-Thoron, Thibault ; Tachikawa, Kazuyo ; Jian, Zhiming ; Ye, Liming ; Droxler, André W. ; Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel ; Barbarin, Nicolas ; Beaufort, Luc. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial Pacific thermocline over the last eight glacial periods. In: Paleoceanography, Vol. 30, no.5, p. 439-455 (2015). doi:10.1002/2014PA002696.
Araya-Melo, P. A. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Bounceur, N.. Global sensitivity analysis of Indian Monsoon during the Pleistocene. In: Climate of the Past Discussions, Vol. 10, no. 2, p. 1609-1651 (2014). doi:10.5194/cpd-10-1609-2014.
Bounceur, Nabila ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wilkinson , R.D.. Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach. In: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 5, no. 5, p. 901-943 (2014). doi:10.5194/esdd-5-901-2014.
Maris, M. N. A. ; Ligtenberg, S. R. M. ; Crucifix, Michel ; de Boer, B. ; Oerlemans, J.. Modelling the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the last interglacial. In: The Cryosphere Discussions, Vol. 8, no. 1, p. 85-120 (2014). doi:10.5194/tcd-8-85-2014.
Maris, M. N. A. ; de Boer, B. ; Ligtenberg, S. R. M. ; Crucifix, Michel ; van de Berg, W. J. ; Oerlemans, J.. Modelling the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the last interglacial. In: The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, no. 4, p. 1347-1360 (2014). doi:10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014.
Yin, Qiuzhen ; Singh, Umesh ; Berger, André ; Guo, Zhengtang ; Crucifix, Michel. Relative impact of insolation and the Indo-Pacific warm pool surface temperature on the East Asia summer monsoon during the MIS-13 interglacial. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 10, no. 1, p. 1645-1657. doi:10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014.
De Vleeschouwer, David ; Crucifix, Michel ; Bounceur, Nabila ; Claeys, Philippe. The impact of astronomical forcing on the Late Devonian greenhouse climate. In: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 120, p. 65-80 (2014). doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.06.002.
De Saedeleer, Bernard ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wieczorek, Sebastian. Is the astronomical forcing a reliable and unique pacemakerfor climate? A conceptual model study. In: Climate Dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system, Vol. 40, p. 273-294 (2013). doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1316-1.
Crucifix, Michel. Why could ice ages be unpredictable?. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 9, no.5, p. 2253-2267 (2013). doi:10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013.
Rohling, E.J. ; Sluijs, A. ; Dijkstra, H.A. ; Köhler, P. ; Van De Wal, R.S.W. ; Von Der Heydt, A.S. ; Beerling, D.J. ; Berger, André ; Bijl, P.K. ; Crucifix, Michel. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. In: Nature : international weekly journal of science, Vol. 491, p. 683-691 (2012). doi:10.1038/nature11574.
Crucifix, Michel. Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory. In: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. A, Vol. 370, no. 1962, p. 1140-1165 (2012). doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0315.
De Vleeschouwer, D. ; Da Silva, A.C. ; Boulvain, F. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Claeys, P.. Precessional and half-precessional climate forcing of Mid-Devonian monsoon-like dynamics. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 8, no. 1, p. 337-351 (2012). doi:10.5194/cp-8-337-2012.
Crucifix, Michel ; Harrison, Sandy ; Brierley, Chris. Recent and deep pasts in paleoclimate model intercomparison project. In: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 93, no.51, p. 539 (2012). doi:10.1029/2012EO510010.
Crucifix, Michel. Traditional and novel approaches to palaeoclimate modelling. In: Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 57, no. 4, p. 1-16 (2012). doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.010.
Crucifix, Michel. How can a glacial inception be predicted?. In: The Holocene : a major interdisciplinary journal focusing on recent environmental change, Vol. 21, no. 5, p. 831-842 (2011). doi:10.1177/0959683610394883.
Ruddiman, W.F. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Oldfield, F.A.. Introduction to the early-Anthropocene Special Issue. In: The Holocene : a major interdisciplinary journal focusing on recent environmental change, Vol. 21, p. 713 (2011). doi:10.1177/0959683611398053.
Crucifix, Michel. La climatologie aujourd'hui. In: Revue des Questions Scientifiques, Vol. 182, p. 3-32 (2011).
Dubinkina, Svetlana ; Goosse, Hugues ; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann ; Crespin, Elisabeth ; Crucifix, Michel. Testing a particle filter to reconstruct climate changes over the past centuries. In: International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering, Vol. 21, no. 12, p. 3611-3618 (2011). doi:10.1142/S0218127411030763.
Crucifix, Michel ; Annan, James. Is the concept of ‘tipping point’ helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures?. In: Hulme, Mike, Contemporary Climate Change Debates (earthscan), Routledge Taylor and Francis Group: Abingdon, Oxon, UK, 2020, p. 251. 9781138333024.
Crucifix, Michel. Epimetron. In: Chiotis, Eustachios, Climate Changes in the Holocene: Impacts and Human Adaptation, CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group: 6000 Broken Sound Parkway, NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742, 2019, p. 397-399. 9780815365938. doi:10.1201/9781351260244.
Crucifix, Michel. Pleistocene glaciations. In: Chiotis, Eustachios, Climate Changes in the Holocene: Impacts and Human Adaptation, CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group: USA, 2019, p. 77-116. 978-0-8153-6593-8.
Rougier, J.C. ; Crucifix, Michel. Uncertainly in climate science and climate policy. In: Lloyd, L. (ed.) ; Winsberg , E (ed.), Climate Modeling, University of Chicago Press, L. Lloyd, E. Winsberg, 2018. 978-3-319-65057-9. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_12.
Crucifix, Michel ; Mitsui, Takahito ; Lenoir, Guillaume. Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics. In: Christian L. E. Franzke - Terence J. O'Kane, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, 2016, p. 1-32. 9781107118140.
Crucifix, Michel ; Mitsui, Takahito. Effects of Additive Noise on the Stability of Glacial Cycles, Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science. In: Ancona Fabio, Cannarsa Piermarco, Jones Christopher, e.a., Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science (Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science; 15), Springer INdAM Series, 2016, p. 93-113. 978-3-319-39091-8. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-39092-5_6.
Crucifix, Michel. Climat (science et epistemologie). In: Bourg Dominique, Papaux Alain, Dictionnaire de la pensée écologique, Presses universitaires de France: Paris, 2015, p. 165-166. 978-2-13-058696-8.