ELIC
Place Louis Pasteur 3/L4.03.08
1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
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- Michel Crucifix
Michel Crucifix
Professeur
Directeur de recherche FNRS
Michel Crucifix a research director with the National Fund of Scientific Research, and part-time professor at the Université catholique de Louvain where he leads the school of physics.
Michel holds a master in Physics (1998), a PhD in Sciences (2002) and was previously employed as palaeoclimate research scientist by the UK Met Office Hadley Center (2002-2006). He is editor of Earth System Dynamics, associate editor of Reviews of Geophysics, and member of the Belgian Royal Academy of Science and Fine Arts since 2015.
- Diplômes
Année Label Institution 1998 Diplôme de licence en physique Facultés Universitaires Notre Dame de la Paix à Namur 1999 Diplômé d'études approfondies en physique Université catholique de Louvain 2002 Docteur en sciences Université catholique de Louvain
Michel Crucifix leads the school of Physics at UCLouvain and in this capacity he is in charge of the teaching programme of physics to bachelor and master students. Besides, he teaches meteorology, simulation methods, ocean and atmosphere dynamics.
- Les cours
Michel Crucifix has been working on climate dynamics and palaeoclimates since 1998, and specialised in modelling the dynamics of the climate system, with a focus on the phenomenon of ice ages, variability and tipping points. He currently leads the workpackage on optimal decision making in a EU H2020 project on tipping points.
Team MembersMarina Martinez : post-doctoral research assistant, physicist (EU-2020 TIPES)
Sergio Rubin : post-doctoral research assistant, biologist (Gaia theory)
Lilian Vanderveken : PhD Student and teaching assistant, vegetation-climate interactions
Alexandre Noel, Master student, Dynamical systems and Phanerozoic Climates
Victor Couplet, Master student, Dynamical systems and the last Glacial Climates
Corentin Visée, Master student in geography, climate reconstructions over the last millennium
2021
Verbitsky, Mikhail ; Crucifix, Michel. ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 12, p. 63-67 (2021). doi:10.5194/esd-12-63-2021.
2021
von der Heydt, Anna S. ; Ashwin, Peter ; Camp, Charles D. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Dijkstra, Henk A. ; Ditlevsen, Peter ; Lenton, Timothy M.. Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record. In: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 197, p. 103399 (2021). doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399.
2021
Lenton, Timothy M. ; Kohler, Timothy A. ; Marquet, Pablo A. ; Boyle, Richard A. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wilkinson, David M. ; Scheffer, Marten. Survival of the Systems. In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, (2021). doi:10.1016/j.tree.2020.12.003 (Accepté/Sous presse).
2020
Jebeile, Julie ; Crucifix, Michel. Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements. In: Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, Vol. 83, p. 44-52 (2020). doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.03.001.
2020
Alexandrov, Dmitri V. ; Bashkirtseva, Irina A. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Ryashko, Lev B.. Nonlinear climate dynamics: From deterministic behaviour to stochastic excitability and chaos. In: Physics Reports, (2020). doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2020.11.002 (Accepté/Sous presse).
2020
Verbitsky, Mikhail Y. ; Crucifix, Michel. Pi-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, no.1, p. 281-289 (2020). doi:10.5281/zenodo.3473957.
2019
Ditlevsen, Peter ; Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel. Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models. In: Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, no. 3-4, p. 1801-1818 (2020). doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05087-3.
2019
Sun, Youbin ; Yin, Qiuzhen ; Crucifix, Michel ; Clemens, Steven C. ; Araya-Melo, P. ; Liu, W. ; Qiuang, X. ; Zhao, H. ; Liang. L. ; Chen, H. ; Li, Y. ; Zhang, L. ; Dong, G. ; Zhon, W. ; Berger, André ; Zhisheng, A.. Diverse manifestations of the Mid-Pleistocene climate transition. In: Nature Communications, (2019).
2019
Verbitsky, Mikhail Y. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Volobuev, Dmitry M.. ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, no.2, p. 257-260 (2019). doi:10.5194/esd-10-257-2019.
2019
Carson, J. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Preston, S. P. ; Wilkinson, R. D.. Quantifying age and model uncertainties in palaeoclimate data and dynamical climate models with a joint inferential analysis. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 475, no.2224, p. 20180854 (2019). doi:10.1098/rspa.2018.0854. doi:10.5281/zenodo.1973118.
2018
Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel. A general theory on frequency and time–frequency analysis of irregularly sampled time series based on projection methods – Part 1: Frequency analysis. In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 25, no.1, p. 145-173 (2018). doi:10.5194/npg-25-145-2018.
2018
Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel. A general theory on frequency and time–frequency analysis of irregularly sampled time series based on projection methods – Part 2: Extension to time–frequency analysis. In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 25, no.1, p. 175-200 (2018). doi:10.5194/npg-25-175-2018.
2018
Verbitsky, Mikhail Y. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Volobuev, Dmitry M.. A theory of Pleistocene glacial rhythmicity. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, no.3, p. 1025-1043 (2018). doi:10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018.
2018
Carson, Jake ; Crucifix, Michel ; Preston, Simon ; Wilkinson, Richard D.. Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 67, p. 25-54 (2017). doi:10.1111/rssc.12222.
2018
Mitsui, Takahito ; Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel. Is the glacial climate scale invariant?. In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, (2019). doi:10.1093/climsys/dzy011.
2018
Erb, Michael P. ; Jackson, Charles S. ; Broccoli, Anthony J. ; Lea, David W. ; Valdes, Paul J. ; Crucifix, Michel ; DiNezio, Pedro N.. Model evidence for a seasonal bias in Antarctic ice cores. In: Nature Communications, Vol. 9, no.1, p. 1361 (2018). doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03800-0.
2018
Kageyama, Masa ; Braconnot, Pascale ; Harrison, Sandy P. ; Haywood, Alan M. ; Jungclaus, Johann H. ; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. ; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves ; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako ; Albani, Samuel ; Bartlein, Patrick J. ; Brierley, Chris ; Crucifix, Michel ; Dolan, Aisling ; Fernandez-Donado, Laura ; Fischer, Hubertus ; Hopcroft, Peter O. ; Ivanovic, Ruza F. ; Lambert, Fabrice ; Lunt, Daniel J. ; Mahowald, Natalie M. ; Peltier, W. Richard ; Phipps, Steven J. ; Roche, Didier M. ; Schmidt, Gavin A. ; Tarasov, Lev ; Valdes, Paul J. ; Zhang, Qiong ; Zhou, Tianjun. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan. In: Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, no.3, p. 1033-1057 (2018). doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018.
2018
Steffen, Will ; Rockström, Johan ; Richardson, Katherine ; Lenton, Timothy M. ; Folke, Carl ; Liverman, Diana ; Summerhayes, Colin P. ; Barnosky, Anthony D. ; Cornell, Sarah E. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Donges, Jonathan F. ; Fetzer, Ingo ; Lade, Steven J. ; Scheffer, Marten ; Winkelmann, Ricarda ; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, no.33, p. 8252-8259 (2018). doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115.
2017
Tzedakis, P. C. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Mitsui, T. ; Wolff, E. W.. A simple rule to determine which insolation cycles lead to interglacials. In: Nature : international weekly journal of science, Vol. 542, no.7642, p. 427-432 (2017). doi:10.1038/nature21364.
2017
De Vleeschouwer, David ; Vahlenkamp, Maximilian ; Crucifix, Michel ; Pälike, Heiko. Alternating Southern and Northern Hemisphere climate response to astronomical forcing during the past 35 m.y.. In: Geology (Boulder), Vol. 45, no.4, p. 375-378 (2017). doi:10.1130/G38663.1.
2017
Carson, Jake ; Crucifix, Michel ; preston, simon ; Wilkinson, Richard. Bayesian model selection for the glacial–interglacial cycle. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics, , p. 34 p.. doi:10.1111/rssc.12222.
2017
Crucifix, Michel ; de Vernal, Anne ; Franzke, Christian. Centennial climate change: The unknown variability zone. In: Past Global Changes Magazine, Vol. 25, p. 133-133 (2017). doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.133.
2017
Lord, Natalie S. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Lunt, Dan J. ; Thorne, Mike C. ; Bounceur, Nabila ; Dowsett, Harry ; O'Brien, Charlotte L. ; Ridgwell, Andy. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 13, p. 1539-1571 (2017). doi:10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017.
2017
Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study. In: Climate Dynamics, (2016). doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z.
2017
Ditlevsen, Peter ; Crucifix, Michel. On the importance of centennial variability for ice ages. In: Past Global Changes Magazine, Vol. 25, p. 152-153 (2017). doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.152.
2017
Valdes, Paul J. ; Armstrong, Edward ; Badger, Marcus P. S. ; Bradshaw, Catherine D. ; Bragg, Fran ; Crucifix, Michel ; Davies-Barnard, Taraka ; Day, Jonathan J. ; Farnsworth, Alex ; Gordon, Chris ; Hopcroft, Peter O. ; Kennedy, Alan T. ; Lord, Natalie S. ; Lunt, Dan J. ; Marzocchi, Alice ; Parry, Louise M. ; Pope, Vicky ; Roberts, William H. G. ; Stone, Emma J. ; Tourte, Gregory J. L. ; Williams, Jonny H. T.. The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0. In: Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, p. 3715-3743 (2017). doi:10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017.
2017
Moldwin, Mark B. ; Florindo, Fabio ; Okin, Gregory ; Robock, Alan ; Rohling, Eelco J. ; Cardenas, Bayani ; Carlton, Annmarie ; Chen, Kate Huihsuan ; Crucifix, Michel ; Gettelman, Andrew ; Hubbard, Alun ; Katsura, Tomoo ; Painter, Thomas H.. Why and How to Write a High-Impact Review Paper: Lessons From Eight Years of Editorial Board Service to Reviews of Geophysics. In: Reviews of Geophysics, (2017). doi:10.1002/2017rg000587.
2016
Bathiany, Sebastian ; Dijkstra, Henk ; Crucifix, Michel ; Dakos, Vasilis ; Brovkin, Victor ; Williamson, Mark S. ; Lenton, Timothy M. ; Scheffer, Marten. Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change. In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, Vol. 1, no. 1, p. dzw004 (2016). doi:10.1093/climsys/dzw004.
2016
Lovejoy, S. ; Crucifix, Michel ; De Vernal, A.. Characterizing Climate Fluctuations over Wide-Scale Ranges. In: Eos, Vol. 97 (2016). doi:10.1029/2016eo055791.
2016
Crucifix, Michel. Climate science: Earth's narrow escape from a big freeze. In: Nature : international weekly journal of science, Vol. 529, no.7585, p. 162-163 (2016). doi:10.1038/529162a.
2016
Berger, André ; Crucifix, Michel ; Hodell, D.A. ; Mangili, C. ; McManus, J.F. ; Otto-Bliesner, B. ; Pol, K. ; Raynaud, D. ; Skinner, L.C. ; Tzedakis, P.C. ; Wolff, E.W. ; Yin, Qiuzhen. Interglacials of the last 800,000 years. In: Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 54, no.1, p. 162-219 (2016). doi:10.1002/2015RG000482.
2016
von der Heydt, A. S. ; Dijkstra, H. A. ; van de Wal, R. S. ; Caballero, R. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Foster, G. L. ; Huber, M. ; Köhler, P. ; Rohling, E. ; Valdes, P.. Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. In: Current Climate Change Reports, (2016). doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3.
2015
Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel ; Aihara, K.. Bifurcations and strange non chaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial-interglacial cycles. In: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena.
2015
Mitsui, Takahito ; Crucifix, Michel ; Aihara, Kazuyuki. Bifurcations and strange nonchaotic attractors in a phase oscillator model of glacial–interglacial cycles. In: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol. 306, p. 25-33 (2015). doi:10.1016/j.physd.2015.05.007.
2015
Araya Melo, Pablo Andrés ; Crucifix, Michel ; Bounceur, Nabila. Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 11, no.11, p. 45-61 (12/01/2015). doi:10.5194/cp-11-45-2015.
2015
Bounceur, Nabila ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wilkinson, R. D.. Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach. In: Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 6, no.1, p. 205-224 (2015). doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015.
2015
Regoli, Fabienne ; de Garidel-Thoron, Thibault ; Tachikawa, Kazuyo ; Jian, Zhiming ; Ye, Liming ; Droxler, André W. ; Lenoir, Guillaume ; Crucifix, Michel ; Barbarin, Nicolas ; Beaufort, Luc. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial Pacific thermocline over the last eight glacial periods. In: Paleoceanography, Vol. 30, no.5, p. 439-455 (2015). doi:10.1002/2014PA002696.
2014
Araya-Melo, P. A. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Bounceur, N.. Global sensitivity analysis of Indian Monsoon during the Pleistocene. In: Climate of the Past Discussions, Vol. 10, no. 2, p. 1609-1651 (2014). doi:10.5194/cpd-10-1609-2014.
2014
Bounceur, Nabila ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wilkinson , R.D.. Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach. In: Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 5, no. 5, p. 901-943 (2014). doi:10.5194/esdd-5-901-2014.
2014
Maris, M. N. A. ; Ligtenberg, S. R. M. ; Crucifix, Michel ; de Boer, B. ; Oerlemans, J.. Modelling the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the last interglacial. In: The Cryosphere Discussions, Vol. 8, no. 1, p. 85-120 (2014). doi:10.5194/tcd-8-85-2014.
2014
Maris, M. N. A. ; de Boer, B. ; Ligtenberg, S. R. M. ; Crucifix, Michel ; van de Berg, W. J. ; Oerlemans, J.. Modelling the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the last interglacial. In: The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, no. 4, p. 1347-1360 (2014). doi:10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014.
2014
Yin, Qiuzhen ; Singh, Umesh ; Berger, André ; Guo, Zhengtang ; Crucifix, Michel. Relative impact of insolation and the Indo-Pacific warm pool surface temperature on the East Asia summer monsoon during the MIS-13 interglacial. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 10, no. 1, p. 1645-1657. doi:10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014.
2014
De Vleeschouwer, David ; Crucifix, Michel ; Bounceur, Nabila ; Claeys, Philippe. The impact of astronomical forcing on the Late Devonian greenhouse climate. In: Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 120, p. 65-80 (2014). doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.06.002.
2013
De Saedeleer, Bernard ; Crucifix, Michel ; Wieczorek, Sebastian. Is the astronomical forcing a reliable and unique pacemakerfor climate? A conceptual model study. In: Climate Dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system, Vol. 40, p. 273-294 (2013). doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1316-1.
2013
Crucifix, Michel. Why could ice ages be unpredictable?. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 9, no.5, p. 2253-2267 (2013). doi:10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013.
2012
Rohling, E.J. ; Sluijs, A. ; Dijkstra, H.A. ; Köhler, P. ; Van De Wal, R.S.W. ; Von Der Heydt, A.S. ; Beerling, D.J. ; Berger, André ; Bijl, P.K. ; Crucifix, Michel. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. In: Nature : international weekly journal of science, Vol. 491, p. 683-691 (2012). doi:10.1038/nature11574.
2012
Crucifix, Michel. Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory. In: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. A, Vol. 370, no. 1962, p. 1140-1165 (2012). doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0315.
2012
De Vleeschouwer, D. ; Da Silva, A.C. ; Boulvain, F. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Claeys, P.. Precessional and half-precessional climate forcing of Mid-Devonian monsoon-like dynamics. In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 8, no. 1, p. 337-351 (2012). doi:10.5194/cp-8-337-2012.
2012
Crucifix, Michel ; Harrison, Sandy ; Brierley, Chris. Recent and deep pasts in paleoclimate model intercomparison project. In: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 93, no.51, p. 539 (2012). doi:10.1029/2012EO510010.
2012
Crucifix, Michel. Traditional and novel approaches to palaeoclimate modelling. In: Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 57, no. 4, p. 1-16 (2012). doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.09.010.
2011
Crucifix, Michel. How can a glacial inception be predicted?. In: The Holocene : a major interdisciplinary journal focusing on recent environmental change, Vol. 21, no. 5, p. 831-842 (2011). doi:10.1177/0959683610394883.
2011
Ruddiman, W.F. ; Crucifix, Michel ; Oldfield, F.A.. Introduction to the early-Anthropocene Special Issue. In: The Holocene : a major interdisciplinary journal focusing on recent environmental change, Vol. 21, p. 713 (2011). doi:10.1177/0959683611398053.
2011
Crucifix, Michel. La climatologie aujourd'hui. In: Revue des Questions Scientifiques, Vol. 182, p. 3-32 (2011).
2011
Dubinkina, Svetlana ; Goosse, Hugues ; Sallaz-Damaz, Yoann ; Crespin, Elisabeth ; Crucifix, Michel. Testing a particle filter to reconstruct climate changes over the past centuries. In: International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering, Vol. 21, no. 12, p. 3611-3618 (2011). doi:10.1142/S0218127411030763.
2020
Crucifix, Michel ; Annan, James. Is the concept of ‘tipping point’ helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures?. In: Hulme, Mike, Contemporary Climate Change Debates (earthscan), Routledge Taylor and Francis Group: Abingdon, Oxon, UK, 2020, p. 251. 9781138333024.
2019
Crucifix, Michel. Epimetron. In: Chiotis, Eustachios, Climate Changes in the Holocene: Impacts and Human Adaptation, CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group: 6000 Broken Sound Parkway, NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742, 2019, p. 397-399. 9780815365938. doi:10.1201/9781351260244.
2019
Crucifix, Michel. Pleistocene glaciations. In: Chiotis, Eustachios, Climate Changes in the Holocene: Impacts and Human Adaptation, CRC Press Taylor and Francis Group: USA, 2019, p. 77-116. 978-0-8153-6593-8.
2018
Rougier, J.C. ; Crucifix, Michel. Uncertainly in climate science and climate policy. In: Lloyd, L. (ed.) ; Winsberg , E (ed.), Climate Modeling, University of Chicago Press, L. Lloyd, E. Winsberg, 2018. 978-3-319-65057-9. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_12.
2016
Crucifix, Michel ; Mitsui, Takahito ; Lenoir, Guillaume. Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics. In: Christian L. E. Franzke - Terence J. O'Kane, Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, 2016, p. 1-32. 9781107118140.
2016
Crucifix, Michel ; Mitsui, Takahito. Effects of Additive Noise on the Stability of Glacial Cycles, Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science. In: Ancona Fabio, Cannarsa Piermarco, Jones Christopher, e.a., Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science (Mathematical Paradigms of Climate Science; 15), Springer INdAM Series, 2016, p. 93-113. 978-3-319-39091-8. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-39092-5_6.
2015
Crucifix, Michel. Climat (science et epistemologie). In: Bourg Dominique, Papaux Alain, Dictionnaire de la pensée écologique, Presses universitaires de France: Paris, 2015, p. 165-166. 978-2-13-058696-8.