Teacher(s)
Language
French
Content
This course is a continuation of the course Quantitative Methods in Social Sciences. The focus is on longitudinal analysis. The objectives are:
- To learn the relevant tools to analyse biographical surveys.
- To be able to understand and use the scientific literature using these methods.
- To be autonomous in the use of data analysis software.
- To be able to select a data analysis strategy in relation to the relevant research questions and to present and interpret the results correctly.
6 major themes:
- Event History Analysis: an introduction.
- The format of the biographical data
- Conceptualization of time and event, truncation and censoring, questions to answer before any event history analysis
- Extinction tables, Kaplan-Meier curves, cross-sectional indices
- Semi-parametric model with proportional hazards (Cox)
- Competitive Risk Model (Fine & Gray)
- To learn the relevant tools to analyse biographical surveys.
- To be able to understand and use the scientific literature using these methods.
- To be autonomous in the use of data analysis software.
- To be able to select a data analysis strategy in relation to the relevant research questions and to present and interpret the results correctly.
6 major themes:
- Event History Analysis: an introduction.
- The format of the biographical data
- Conceptualization of time and event, truncation and censoring, questions to answer before any event history analysis
- Extinction tables, Kaplan-Meier curves, cross-sectional indices
- Semi-parametric model with proportional hazards (Cox)
- Competitive Risk Model (Fine & Gray)
Teaching methods
The course follows the principle of flipped classrooms, combined with the principle of just-in-time teaching for some instances.
Videos on theoretical issues will be watched by the students, who will then answer questions. The answers to these questions will be discussed face-to-face.
Other videos on more practical issues will also be viewed, but usually in class, in order to carry out practical exercises (TP: practicals).
Videos on theoretical issues will be watched by the students, who will then answer questions. The answers to these questions will be discussed face-to-face.
Other videos on more practical issues will also be viewed, but usually in class, in order to carry out practical exercises (TP: practicals).
Evaluation methods
The 5 intermediate tasks are marked out of 4 points and must be submitted to the course holder via Moodle by the stated deadlines, 1 to 3 days before the class. Each day of delay will reduce the mark by one point.
The 3 intermediate assignments are marked out of 5 points and must be submitted via Moodle by the stated deadlines, with each day of delay resulting in a one-point deduction.
A peer review exercise will be organised and marked out of 5 points. Students will be required to prepare comments on a regression result and to provide feedback on the comments of two other students.
Students will also be expected to prepare questions on the entire course for a discussion during the final session.
Final individual report (marked out of 60): to be submitted to the course holder via i-Campus and as a printed copy. Assessment criteria:
The 3 intermediate assignments are marked out of 5 points and must be submitted via Moodle by the stated deadlines, with each day of delay resulting in a one-point deduction.
A peer review exercise will be organised and marked out of 5 points. Students will be required to prepare comments on a regression result and to provide feedback on the comments of two other students.
Students will also be expected to prepare questions on the entire course for a discussion during the final session.
Final individual report (marked out of 60): to be submitted to the course holder via i-Campus and as a printed copy. Assessment criteria:
- Presentation of the demographic situation of the country and of the research question (focused on the effect of one covariate of interest on migration) (10 pts)
- Sources and methods used (10 pts)
- Results of descriptive event history analysis (10 pts)
• Kaplan–Meier (first event) and associated indicators (quartiles, etc.)
• Smoothed hazard (first and all events)
• Cumulative incidence function (CIF) for competing events - Results of in-depth event history analysis on all migrations, with no distinction of flow or rank (10 pts)
• Choice of one covariate of interest and any number of control covariates
• Checking of the proportionality assumption for the covariate of interest
• Cox regression on repeatable events - Fine & Gray regression on competing events of the 4 flows (first migration) (10 pts)
• Only the first migration will be taken into account
• Use the same covariates as in the Cox model
• Do not check the proportionality assumption - Conclusions (10 pts), including a synthesis of the results and the main conclusions
- Graphics, tables, language, bibliography presentation (bonus 2 pts)
- Annex: copy-and-paste your Stata do-file, and possibly some tables and graphs if needed
- Continuous assessment cannot be retaken in the resit (second session); the mark for the final report in the second session replaces that of the first session, while the continuous assessment marks are carried over to the second session.
- The use of artificial intelligence is not prohibited but must comply with the rules set out in the ESPO Faculty’s note on the subject, available on its intranet site for students: http://uclouvain.be/consignes-chatgpt
Other information
A good knowledge of Stata software or other statistical processing software is essential.
Online resources
Videos (screencast), computer programs (Stata) and other materials are available on MoodleUCL.
Bibliography
Reed, H.E. 2012. Moving Across Boundaries: Migration in South Africa, 1950–2000. Demography 50(1):71-95.
Clark, S. & C. Cotton. 2013. Transitions to adulthood in urban Kenya: A focus on adolescent migrants. Demographic Research 28(37):1053-1092.
Widmer, E. & Ritschard, G. 2009. The de-standardization of the life course: Are men and women equal? Advances in Life Course Research 14:28-39.
Gutierrez-Demènech M. 2008. The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain. Journal of Population Economics 21:83-110.
Kamrul Islam, M., Gerdtham, U.-G., Gullberg, B., Lindström, M. & Merlo, J., (2008), Social capital externalities and mortality in Sweden. Economics and Human Biology 6, 19-42.
Manuel: Mario Cleves, William W. Gould, Roberto G. Gutierrez, and Yulia Marchenko (2008) An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata, 2nd Edition, Publisher: Stata Press
Clark, S. & C. Cotton. 2013. Transitions to adulthood in urban Kenya: A focus on adolescent migrants. Demographic Research 28(37):1053-1092.
Widmer, E. & Ritschard, G. 2009. The de-standardization of the life course: Are men and women equal? Advances in Life Course Research 14:28-39.
Gutierrez-Demènech M. 2008. The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain. Journal of Population Economics 21:83-110.
Kamrul Islam, M., Gerdtham, U.-G., Gullberg, B., Lindström, M. & Merlo, J., (2008), Social capital externalities and mortality in Sweden. Economics and Human Biology 6, 19-42.
Manuel: Mario Cleves, William W. Gould, Roberto G. Gutierrez, and Yulia Marchenko (2008) An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata, 2nd Edition, Publisher: Stata Press
Faculty or entity
