Public Thesis Defense of Pierre Jacques - IMMC
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Coupling models to understand the interactions between energy transition and macroeconomic dynamics by Pierre Jacques
Jeudi 6 février 2025 à 16 :30 - Auditoire BARB91 - Place Sainte-Barbe à 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve.
The global shift towards carbon-neutral energy systems necessitates in-depth, forward-looking analysis and modelling, motivated by the scale and multifaceted nature of the transformations at hand. This thesis examines the coupling of macroeconomic models and energy system models to generate policy-relevant insights into the dynamics of the energy transition. Such integrative approach reveals new dynamics and trajectories that would remain hidden if each model were considered in isolation. The simulation results at the world level underline that a global energy transition compatible with the 1.5°C objective of the Paris Agreement leads to a decrease of the energy system's EROI and to high investment share, employment and inflation. Potential bottlenecks and supply constraints are a major determinant of the related dynamics. The second part of the thesis focuses on model coupling for modelling the case of the Colombian energy transition. Through this case study, we aim at studying how the macroeconomic dynamics of an emerging, fossil fuels exporting economy can be affected by its domestic energy transition. The simulation results especially highlight the joint dynamics between the energy transition, cross-border financial flows and the national currency exchange rate. Based on this pioneering work, several avenues for future research are put forward, to refine the feedback loops in the coupled model of the economy-finance-energy system.
Jury members:
Prof. Hervé Jeanmart (UCLouvain), supervisor
Dr. Antoine Godin (AFD, France), supervisor
Prof. Aude Simar (UCLouvain), chairperson
Prof. Francesco Contino (UCLouvain), secretary
Prof. Eric Kemp-Benedict (University of Leeds, UK)
Dr. Gaëlle Le Treut (AFD, France)
Pay attention: the public defense of Pierre Jacques will also take place in the form of a videoconference.