Xavier Milhaud

Associate Professor at the university Aix-Marseille (Institute of mathematics)

Impact of heat waves on mortality: extension of parametric longevity models to account for global warming

Abstract :
Global warming significantly impacts human health, with intense heat waves causing spikes in mortality, particularly among the elderly. Recently, longevity models have started to incorporate a temperature-related component to account for climate change. We propose an extension of recent works, which specifically models the impact of heat waves. Our approach complements existing longevity models, demonstrates better robustness indicators, and can forecast future mortality based on various climate scenarios. In this regard, we present the impacts on french mortality of three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the last IPCC.

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