Sponsor: FNRS - PDR
Promoter: Joseph Gomes
Start date: 2023
End date: 2025
Project description
In the face of growing backlash against globalization, there is increasing interest in identifying the groups and locations that are left behind by globalization. Using high-resolution geocoded grid-cell level as well as individual-level data, this project will investigate the deleterious effects of globalization in perpetuating the marginalisation of ethnic minorities, thereby encouraging violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We will rely on the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) that, during the 2000s, lowered US trade barriers for most African countries and led to substantial increases in international trade. Because not all African countries were part of the AGOA, and because accession occurred in a staggered manner, there is cross-country temporal variation in trade openness. With this, we will combine the natural level of openness to trade at a local level using information on travel time from the closest port to generate sub-national variation in trade exposure. Further combining this with a novel dataset on local ethnic composition at a spatial resolution of 5 sq. km, we will particularly gauge the role of ethnic remoteness, as opposed to ethnic diversity, in mediating the effects of trade shocks on conflict. Deploying cutting edge econometric methods on grid-cell- and individual-level data, we will be able to estimate causal effects more convincingly than is usual in the state of the art. We will provide unprecedented insights into the potential marginalization of ethnic minorities in the face of trade liberalization and its effects on intergroup relations and violent conflict.