11:00
September 26 - 14:30 - "Scrappage models for cars: multi state processes versus duration models" -
Scrappage models for cars: multi state processes versus duration models
Abstract:
I illustrate how a Markov multi-state process can be used to model car scrappage decisions in car stock models, as an alternative to simple duration models. In contrast to duration models, multi-state processes take into account that cars often change hands between owners who exhibit quite different scrappage behaviour.
Using a real-world numeric example, I show that using a simple duration model can lead to a serious misrepresentation of the size, the age structure and the ownership structure of a car stock. In turn, this leads to a low accuracy in the estimation of CO2 emissions from the car stock and of the tax receipts based on car ownership.
Simulating the car stock with a multi-state process leads to more accurate estimates of all key parameters of the car stock.
This seminar will be given in presence in room C-115, 20 voie du Roman Pays, Louvain-la-Neuve. Online participation is also possible but we can't guarantee high quality.
Room C.115 or TEAMS
Lien: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/3374883247628?p=npNiQH7UVz9I3N0O44