02/10/2025 | 12:45

Bart Cockx

(Ghent University)

will give a presentation on 

Biased Beliefs in Job Search: Structural Evaluation of Counseling and Coaching

Abstract

Using Swiss data on job search behavior and expectations about interviews, we evaluate a program combining intensified counseling and coaching to address biased beliefs, in a randomized trial. We develop a job search model with Bayesian updating of biased perceptions about the number of interviews. Job seekers are initially overoptimistic, then become over-pessimistic as past signals fade. The model replicates the non-monotonic job-finding rate and patterns in applications, (expected) interviews, and wages. It decomposes the treatment effect into key drivers—search efficiency, job search costs, and beliefs—identifying belief formation as main channel through which the program accelerates employment transitions.