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14:00 - "Socio-economic mortality curves: the Belgian case"
Socio-economic mortality curves: the Belgian case
Abstract:
In this paper, we create up-to-date socio-economic mortality tables for Belgium. These socio-economic mortality tables provide superior out-of-sample predictions for mortality compared to the commonly used pure gender-based models. We use the socio-economic model for the valuation of socio-economic heterogeneous retirement schemes and we find economically significant differences with the current market practice of using pure gender-based models. In addition to valuation differences due to deviations from the overall population, we also quantify a “convexity” effect for pension funds representative of the general population. This follows from the fact that people with higher (lower) pension payments are more likely to live longer (shorter) than average. In order to assess the impact of socio-economic determinants on longevity, we utilize detailed micro-data for the entire Belgian population obtained from the Belgian statistical office spanning 15–30 years, depending on the variable. We analyze the mortality rates of sub-populations with diverse socio-economic characteristics, using the Li–Lee model. For all socio-economic variables considered, our analysis reveals significant variations (reaching up to ) in survival probabilities for the retirement ages (65+) across distinct socio-economic sub-populations. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that, unlike the diminishing trend observed in the gender gap over time, the impact of socio-economic differences on longevity remains quite stable over the examined period.