26/02/2026 - 12:45 - Doyen 22

Giorgia Marini

(Sapienza University of Rome)

will give a presentation on 

Waiting Times and Waiting Lists in the NHS: Theory, Evidence, and the Role of Hospital Mergers

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between waiting times and waiting lists in the English National Health Service (NHS), where—contrary to standard queuing logic—we observe a not always positively correlation between the two. We first develop a theoretical model in which hospitals choose service volumes under regulated prices and semi-altruistic preferences. The model predicts that the interaction between treatment volume decisions and backlog accumulation gives rise to a non-monotonic relation between waiting lists and waiting times. We then test this prediction using a panel of English hospitals and find evidence of a not always positive relationship between waiting list size and average waiting time. Finally, we estimate the causal effects of hospital mergers on waiting lists using staggered difference-in-differences methods, showing how consolidation shapes access to care under capacity constraints.

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