10/03/2026 - 12:45 - Doyen 22

Silvia Peracchi

(UCLouvain, LIDAM, IRES)

will give a presentation on 

Violence Next Door: How Conflict Reconfigures Regional Trade and Development

Abstract

Conflicts and civil wars have major economic consequences, both domestically and beyond their borders. This paper examines a key cross-country implication of civil wars, namely their role as external shocks to trade linkages. To do so, it exploits the 2002 civil war in Côte d’Ivoire as a quasi-natural experiment for causal evidence. The conflict temporarily harmed Ivorian markets and limited access to the Port of Abidjan, prompting its landlocked trade partners, Mali and Burkina Faso, to redirect regional and overseas trade flows to other coastal countries in West Africa. We analyze whether coastal countries competing with Côte d’Ivoire benefited from this redirected trade. Treatment is defined as areas in West African coastal countries best connected to international trade routes. Our findings suggest persistently higher economic activity in areas more exposed to international corridors following the exogenous trade shock. These effects are observed in the form of land-cover indicators of human settlement and cropland extent, built-up areas, population, and nighttime lights. Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys further point to increases in female employment and human capital. Taken together, these results highlight how conflict-induced trade disruptions can generate significant agglomeration effects and lead to persistent spatial reallocation of economic activity.

With Evie Graus (University of Luxembourg)

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