Prof. F. Contino conducts research on understanding and dealing with uncertainties in energy system models.
In the understanding of uncertainties, he focuses on mapping the impact of limited data (i.e., epistemic uncertainty) and natural variability (i.e., aleatory uncertainty) on key parameters, such as the solar irradiance and the natural gas price for the next decades, using advanced mathematical methods such as imprecise probabilities.
He also focuses on developing efficient ways to propagate these uncertainties using surrogate-assisted uncertainty quantification methods, as existing state-of-the-art methods are limited in their applicability to complex, time-consuming energy system models (i.e., the curse of dimensionality).
Finally, he aims to provide decision-makers with actionable insights by working on the interpretation of uncertain energy system performances.