IRES Lunch Seminar

Aim

The IRES Lunch Seminar is an informal forum where researchers present their work in progress in details and receive criticism and feedback from colleagues. Presentations on the blackboard are also welcome. PhD students entering the job market this year are strongly encouraged to present their job market paper.

Practical details

The Macro Group provides sandwiches. Whether you would like a sandwich or not, please register by the Friday before the meeting at :
https://forms.gle/syKv2jf3NjPXXKuz9

Organizers:

• Silvia Peracchi
• Joseph Gomes

When? 

On Tuesdays from 12:45 to 13:45

Where? :

This year the IRES Lunch Seminar will take place in room D.144 Dupriez Building, Place Montesquieu 3,1348 Louvain-la-Neuve

Programme -  academic year 2024 - 2025

24 Andualem Assefa Welde (University of Macerata)
Social Division and Preferences for Redistribution

Abstract

Why is income redistribution almost nonexistent in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite it being one of the most unequal regions? Rising inequality does not automatically lead to redistributive taxation. The main aim of this study is to identify the key factors that shape individual preference for redistribution policies, with an emphasis on issues related to social stratification, such as ethnic favoritism and discrimination. The study relies on data from the 8th round Afrobarometer survey (2019-2022) , which introduced a range of questions on redistribution.

October 2024

01 IRES Afternoon

08 Sébastien Fontenay (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Can Public Policies Break the Gender Mold? Evidence from Paternity Leave Reforms in Six Countries

Abstract

Abstract: We investigate the impact of paternity leave policies on gender role attitudes in the next generation. We measure gender-stereotypical attitudes using an Implicit Association Test with 3,000 online respondents in six countries. Using an RD design, we observe a significant reduction (-0.21 SD) in gender-stereotypical attitudes among men born post-paternity leave implementation. This shift influences career choices, as men whose fathers were affected by the reform are more inclined to pursue counter-stereotypical jobs, particularly in high-skilled occupations like healthcare and education. Our findings highlight how paternity leave fosters egalitarian gender norms and affects the occupational choices of the next generation.

29 Pablo Álvarez Aragon (UNamur)
Ancestral Beliefs and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This paper contributes to the explanation of the puzzle of persistently high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. I focus on the impact of a belief system that emphasizes the role of ancestors, who influence people's lives and have a strong interest in the continuation of their lineage into which they may be reincarnated. I combine first-hand data with original ethnographic information and both historical and contemporary surveys to show: 1) a strong, positive relationship between ancestral beliefs and fertility in different contexts and time periods that holds across ethnic groups, across individuals within countries, and across migrants who grew up in similar environments but whose beliefs in ancestral influence differ; and 2) that this relationship is specifically driven by the motive to continue one's lineage. To address this second point, I test the specific predictions of a simple model of fertility in which children are a public good for a family with ancestral beliefs because they continue the family line. However, whether one's children continue one's lineage depends on the kinship system: while this is the case in a patrilineal system, in a matrilineal system children continue the mother's lineage, but not the father's lineage. The model predicts that 1) ancestral beliefs have a stronger positive influence on fertility in patrilineal societies; and 2) in groups with ancestral beliefs, very specific free-riding behaviors emerge: in patrilineal societies, male fertility decreases with the number of brothers, while in matrilineal societies, female fertility decreases with the number of sisters (but not brothers). The predictions are supported by the data.

05 Andrea Caria (University of Cagliari)
The Remote Control of fertility: Causal evidence from the transition to digital terrestrial television in Italy

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the transition from analog to digital terrestrial television (DTT) on fertility rates in Italy. Utilizing the staggered implementation of DTT between 2008 and 2012, I identify a negative effect on fertility in treated municipalities. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, the analysis reveals that more densely populated, educated, and politically left-leaning municipalities experience more pronounced effects. The findings suggest that exposure to diverse television content influences family planning decisions, leading to higher female labor force participation and reduced time spent on housework. This research underscores the significant role of media in shaping demographic trends and highlights the need for policymakers to consider the broader societal impacts of media consumption.

12 Ella Sargsyan (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)
Potato to the Rescue: Home Production and Child Nutrition during Deep Economic Crises

Abstract

Sufficient nutrition intake in early life is crucial for the development of human capital. In light of rising concerns about food insecurity caused by a variety of crises, it is essential to identify effective coping strategies households can employ to mitigate the lasting impacts of income shocks and associated nutrition deficits. We uncover a previously unexplored coping mechanism - home production - and establish the extent of its effectiveness in mitigating negative effects of crises on child health. To do so, we focus on the transition period after the collapse of the Soviet Union and investigate the role of household production of potatoes. Specifically, utilizing individual-level data from Russia, Kazakhstan, and other post-Soviet countries and exploiting the variation in the soil suitability index, we establish that households that grew potatoes on land more suitable for their cultivation were able to reduce the negative effects of transition shock on the health of their children as measured by adult height and height-for-age z-score. Our findings suggest that targeted nutritional interventions are needed to mitigate long-term damage for children in times of catastrophic economic shocks, particularly in areas where households face limitations in home production.

19 Diego Malo rico (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)
Economics or Culture? Social Identification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This paper examines how an individual’s ethnic group’s economic status and its cultural distance from the nation affect their social identification in Sub-Saharan Africa. I use the agricultural value of each ethnic group as a proxy for economic status and measure cultural distance based on the linguistic distance of each ethnic group within its country. Focusing on ethnic versus national identification, I find that as the economic status of ethnically distant groups improves, individuals in these groups tend to identify more strongly with their ethnic group. Conversely, individuals from less ethnically distant groups increasingly identify with the nation as their group’s economic status rises. Additionally, the findings reveal that more superficial linguistic cleavages have a stronger impact on social identification than deeper linguistic differences, suggesting that people respond more strongly to easily recognized traits. These patterns highlight the potential for economic shifts to polarize identities, emphasizing the interconnected roles of economic conditions and cultural factors in shaping group affiliations.

26 Jing-Rong Zeng (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)
Beggar Thy Neighbor? Illicit Gold Trade and Conflict in the African Great Lakes Region

Abstract

We investigate the impact of establishing a gold refinery in Uganda on conflict dynamics at artisanal gold mining sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Using a difference-in-differences approach and high-resolution data on mining activities and conflict events, we find that the refinery’s opening significantly increased violence at neighboring artisanal mining sites in the DRC. To understand the underlying dynamics, we constructed a novel dataset that maps the distribution of violent groups and integrates smuggling route data from the DRC to Uganda. Our analysis reveals that certain armed groups strategically targeted mining sites around the smuggling route following the refinery's establishment, while the pre-existing control of some artisanal mining sites by armed actors partially mitigated the intensified conflicts. These findings highlight the complex effects of mineral-related regulations and smuggling in fragile regions, where weak state capacity and cross-border political-economic dynamics can exacerbate conflict and instability. Additionally, our results underscore the nuanced relationship between armed groups and local mining communities; in some cases, armed groups act as "stationary bandits," providing security to facilitate their extraction of resource values.

03 Andrea Marcucci (Università della Svizzera Italiana)
Water Wars

Abstract

We study the relationship between access to water resources and local violence in Africa. Due to limited irrigation, rural communities rely on rainfall, rivers, and lakes for their economic needs. Rainfall scarcity can make access to water from rivers and lakes more valuable, thereby generating conflicts in rural settings. We explore this hypothesis by integrating granular data on the river network with high-resolution data on rainfall and violent conflict events in Africa from 1997 to 2021. We find that reduced rainfall in a location leads to more conflict in neighboring areas that are water-rich and located upstream along the river network. These are the sites that exert more control over the river flow. The effect is more pronounced in regions experiencing a long-term decline in water presence. Consistent with the proposed mechanism, conflicts concentrate in areas with higher returns to water access, as proxied by the presence of agricultural production. Additionally, the impact is more pronounced in regions with unequal water distribution among ethnic groups, highlighting how cooperation costs are an important friction preventing peaceful sharing of water resources. In terms of policy responses, we find that the effects tend to be mitigated in countries with stronger democratic institutions, better rule of law, higher state capacity and less corruption.

10 Morteza Ghomi (Bank of Spain)
Stimulating Avenues: EIB Loans and Returns to Public Infrastructure

Abstract

We analyze the economic impact of public infrastructure investment using European Investment Bank (EIB) loans to publicly owned firms and governments as an instrument for infrastructure shocks. To address endogeneity in loan approval, we apply the Inverse-Probability-Weighted Regression-Adjustment (IPWRA) estimator and a local projection IV approach. Our findings show that infrastructure investment boosts employment, output, and private investment in the medium term without causing inflation. The output multiplier peaks at 3.3 five years after the shock, with larger effects in countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios and poor governance. Interestingly, in such countries, public investment strongly crowds in private investment, amplifying the overall impact.

17 David de la Croix (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)
Salvation, Flora, and the Cosmos: Pre-modern Academic Institutions and the Spread of Ideas 

Abstract

Having a few good ideas in a lifetime is not uncommon, but for those ideas to spread and evolve, a community is essential. About 200 universities operated in premodern Europe. Together with about 150 academies of sciences which blossomed in the 17th century, they employed thousands of scholars. We examine whether the network established by these institutions was sufficiently dense to foster the spread of scholars' ideas across time and space. By building a network of scholars exchanging ideas through institutional affiliations (intention to treat), we demonstrate how the European academic landscape exposed cities to new ideas, influencing their development. We highlight examples such as Botanic Gardens, the publication of calendars, and Protestantism. Through counterfactual simulations, we show that both universities and academies played a crucial role, with academies, even early one (Lincei, Mersenne), exerted a strong multiplier effect. Ideas gain significance when effectively channeled by powerful institutions.

  (with Rossana Scebba, Chiara Zanardello)

04 Paul Atwell (Univerisad Carlos III)
Reducing Falsehoods at the Source: An experimental study incentivizing Brazilian political elites to avoid online misinformation

Abstract

Elites play an outsized role in the sharing and reach of misinformation on social media yet remain vastly understudied. How responsive are they to being informed about penalties and their likelihood of enforcement? We design and implement a parallel survey and field experiment with candidates for municipal office in Brazil, many of whom we show lack knowledge about campaign rules. Candidates were randomly assigned to receive an informational campaign advising them of penalties they may face if they share misinformation during the 2024 campaign. In the survey experiment (n = 875) we show that interest in misinformation is responsive to the informational treatment, but this comes at the cost of a chilling effect across all types of headlines. In the field experiment (n = 2,595) we analyze candidates’ posting behavior on Instagram and Facebook, and again find evidence of efficacy in reducing misinformation, but does so without causing a chilling effect, without changing electoral outcomes, and without additional prosecutions. Together, our findings suggest that robust juridical responses to misinformation can shift elite behavior and reduce the supply of misinformation.

11 François Fontaine (PSE)

18 Jean-François Maystadt (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

25 Morgane Rigaux (ULB)

04 Filippo Manfredini (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

11 Michel De Vroey (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

18 Alexander Yarkin ( LISER and UC Davis)

25 Luca Pensieroso (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

01 Natalia Bermúdez-Barrezuta (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

08 Giulia Tarullo (IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)

15 Rana Cömertpay (LISER)

06 Lucie Giorgi (AMSE)

13 Keiti Kondi (Bureau fédéral du Plan)

Archives

In this section, you will find the programmes of previous years. Click to expand the content.