Anxieties have persisted ever since the arrival of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis on Belgian soil. But the frightful perceptions of the economic effects are erroneous, according to Dr Frédéric Docquier, a researcher at the UCL Economic and Social Research Institute.
In Belgium, the mass arrival of asylum seekers in 2015 fuelled anxiety among the public and politicians. Some expressed concern over the possible negative effects on public finances and the job market. But what’s the reality? Dr Frédéric Docquier, an FNRS research associate and member of the UCL Economic and Social Research Institute, wanted to find out.
‘Between 1960 and 2010,’ Dr Docquier explains, ‘the number of international migrants grew from 92 million to 211 million, a rate roughly proportional to that of global population growth. However, in high-income countries such as Belgium, the number of migrants increased much more rapidly than the population did. So it’s natural and legitimate that the question of immigration has gradually become one of the major concerns of politicians and academics and also a source of fear for the population.’
Non-economic migration
Be that as it may, the current migration crisis cannot be considered economically generated. The Iraqis and Syrians coming to Belgium have no choice but to flee their countries. ‘Leaving one’s country is a difficult and risky choice. Despite the world’s acute income inequality, opinion surveys show that only 12% of the world’s population genuinely wants to migrate. If not for the war, the number of Syrians ready to undertake an expensive, dangerous journey to Europe would be small. In 2010, only 6% of Syrians expressed a desire to come to Europe should the opportunity present itself. Ultimately, the recent influx is the only possible response to one of the bloodiest wars in recent decades.’
Negligible effects on employment
To analyse the potential effects of the migration crisis in Belgium, Dr Docquier was able to rely on data from previous waves of migration, such as those of 1994 and 2000, when refugees arrived en masse from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Romania, the Balkans, Iraq and Chechnya.
‘The figures tell the story: over the past 25 years, increases in the number of first-time asylum seekers did not coincide with increases in unemployment; actually, the opposite occurred. As a general rule, immigration’s effect on Belgian employment and salaries is weak. This is easily explained. On one side, immigration increases demand for goods and services and investment, thus it increases demand for workers. On the other side, migrants don’t have the same qualifications as locals in terms of education, professional experience and specialisation, even age. So they’re not ready replacements for Belgian workers in the eyes of employers.’
What about public finances?
‘Immigration’s impact on public finances is a bit more difficult to quantify. Indeed, while it’s relatively easy to use household surveys or fiscal data to identify taxes paid and public assistance received by migrants, the impact on other public revenue and expenditures such as national defence, justice or public infrastructure is more difficult to calculate.’
Nevertheless, an OECD comparative study helped Dr Docquier estimate that the effect on Belgian public finances is positive. ‘I based my calculations on a likely scenario that two-thirds of non-individually identifiable expenditures is affected by immigration and one-third is not. As a result, I found that immigration generates a fiscal gain of 0.3% of gross domestic product, or about €117 per resident per year.’
Asylum: crisis or opportunity?
Dr Docquier’s study, published in the UCL journal Regards économiques, thus shows that immigration, especially the current wave of asylum seekers, doesn’t generate the economic costs feared by the public. Moreover, the migrant crisis could be an opportunity for Belgium, if it can economically and socially integrate asylum seekers.
‘To do so,’ Dr Docquier concludes, ‘Belgium must quickly give them the right to work and provide access to professional and language training, and at the same time more effectively inform Belgian citizens of the fiscal benefits as well as the complementary aspects of Belgian and migrant workers. The social stakes of integration are equally important. Discriminatory practices, intolerance and racism force immigrants into ghettos, and to reject the host country’s norms and values. Managing differences will surely help maximise synergies and the benefits of diversity.’
Elise Dubuisson
A Glance at Frédéric Docquier's bio
