Land use change emissions from biomass consumption: Going from estimation to attribution" by Manan Bhan (BOKU Vienna)

Biomass production generates land use impacts in the form of emissions from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU), i.e. due to changes in ecosystem carbon stocks. Recently, consumption-based accounting (CBA) approaches have emerged as alternatives to conventional production-based accounts, quantifying FOLU emissions associated with biomass consumption, for example, of particular territories. However, the quantification and allocation of FOLU emissions to individual biomass products, a fundamental part of CBA approaches, is a complex endeavour. Existing studies make diverging methodological choices, which are rarely critically discussed. In this seminar, I provide a structured overview of existing CBA approaches used to estimate FOLU emissions. I cluster existing approaches in a two-by-two grid, distinguishing the primary element under investigation (impacts of changing consumption patterns in a region vs. impacts of consumption on production landscapes) and the analytical lens (prospective vs retrospective). Further, I identify three distinct dimensions which characterise the way in which different studies allocate FOLU emissions to biomass products: (1) the choice of reference system and the (2) spatial and (3) temporal scale of investigation. Finally, I identify three frontiers that require future attention: (1) overcoming structural biases which underestimate FOLU emissions from territories that experienced deforestation in the distant past, (2) explicitly tackling the interdependence of proximate causes and ultimate drivers of land use change, and (3) assessing uncertainties and understanding the effects of land management. In this way, my research enables a critical assessment of appropriate methods, supports a nuanced interpretation of results from particular approaches as well as enhances the informative value of CBA approaches related to FOLU emissions, with implications for informing international climate policy in scenarios where consumption-based approaches are adopted in practice.