13 September 2024
16:15
Louvain-la-Neuve
Place Croix du Sud, SUD 09
With climate change, human societies must phase out fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels are versatile energy sources. They are present everywhere in our energy systems and daily lives. Studying fossil-free energy systems is complex as it must integrate all energy-consuming sectors and consider their synergies. Focusing on Europe, this thesis addresses the following research question: How can Europe build a fossil-free energy system by 2050?
Due to their versatility, renewable fuels derived from biomass or electricity are crucial for achieving the total phase-out of fossil fuels in Europe. They can replace fossil fuels in applications where direct electrification is not an option. However, production costs and efficiency challenges exist. They are scarce and strategic resources. An integrated approach at a large spatial scale is needed to study their strategic production and use. Therefore, this thesis addresses the underexplored integration of renewable fuels in the European energy system and answers the following research question: What is the strategic role of renewable fuels in a fossil-free European energy system?
This thesis develops EnergyScope Multi-Cells, an optimization model to answer these two research questions. This multi-regional model is built with a whole-energy system approach, considering all energy sectors and carriers. It is suitable to study a high penetration of renewable energy and enables a direct comparison of renewable fuels with competing alternatives.
This thesis explores twelve different designs for a fossil-free European energy system by applying a hybrid method that combines scenario analysis and near-optimal space exploration to EnergyScope Multi-Cells.
These system designs are analyzed to underline the key trade-offs and must-haves for a European fossil-free energy system. In particular, the results underline the need for a high deployment of photovoltaic power and wind energy, reaching at least an energy production that is six times and four times the current production in Europe, respectively. Electricity production increases drastically in all system designs, up to 3.4 times compared to the current production. This increased production is linked to high electrification of energy services, 49 to 62% of the final energy consumption, and substantial production of electrofuels, using from 20 to 50% of the electricity produced. Furthermore, the strategic role of renewable fuels appears in all system designs. They supply 30 to 45% of the final energy consumption for specific sectors such as aviation, shipping, freight, non-energy demand, industrial heat, and busses. Their role in addressing the spatio-temporal disparity of renewables is essential. They transport 69 to 
84% of the energy exchanged between countries and represent 39 to 54% of the storage capacity installed.
To conclude, this work shows that a massive deployment of solar and wind energies coupled with the production of renewable fuels allows for phasing out fossil fuels in Europe.
Jury members :
- Prof. Hervé Jeanmart (UCLouvain, Belgium), supervisor
- Prof. Francesco Contino (UCLouvain, Belgium), supervisor
- Prof. Sandra Soares-Frazao (UCLouvain, Belgium), chairperson
- Prof. Emmanuel De Jaeger (UCLouvain, Belgium)
- Prof. Sylvain Quoilin (ULg, Belgium)
- Prof. Valentin Bertsch (Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany)