Potential of wind and solar resources and macroeconomic implications of the energy transition by Elise DUPONT

Pour l’obtention du grade de Docteur en sciences de l’ingénieur et technologie

In recent years, a controversy has developed as to whether, within a few decades, renewable energies could meet all the world energy needs, without jeopardising economic growth. To shed a new light on this debate, a new methodology has been developed in this thesis to estimate global wind and solar potentials and the associated Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Additionally, the obtained results have been coupled with a macroeconomic model to assess the feasibility and the economic impacts of the energy transition.

The model shows that, although having a twice higher global potential, solar technologies present lower EROIs than wind technologies. The global worldwide potentials obtained lie in the lower ranges of the estimations found in the literature, while for the European countries, the total potential is only equivalent to the current final energy consumption of this region. This maximum potential can only be achieved if all of the theoretically available areas are covered with wind farms and solar fields, including areas with low energy profitability, especially for solar power plants. The actually achievable potential will depend partly on the sustainable minimum EROI; in other words, on the maximum price, in terms of energy and capital costs, at which we can afford to produce our energy in the future.

When results of the energy model are coupled with a macroeconomic model, simulations show that in a business-as-usual context, a complete energy transition on a global scale is unachievable before the end of the century. The reason lies in the increasing capital needs of the energy sector as the share of renewable energies progresses, which slows, if not stops, economic growth and the energy transition itself. Provided that (i) energy demand is kept under control at its current level, (ii) a sufficient rate of capital growth is sustained (above its historical level), and (iii) substantial progress is made in terms of energy efficiency, a complete transition could be achieved by 2070. However, this strategy requires a significant increase in the savings rate with a negative impact on public and private consumption, which would end up stagnating at the end of the transition.

Jury members :

• Prof. Hervé Jeanmart (UCLouvain), supervisor
• Prof. Thomas Pardoen (UCLouvain), chairperson
• Prof. Emmanuel De Jaeger (UCLouvain), secretary
• Prof. Jean-François Fagnart (Université Saint-Louis, Belgium)
• Dr. Iñigo Cappelán-Pérez (Universidad de Valladoid, Spain)

Pay attention :

The public defense of Elise Dupont scheduled for Tuesday 01 June at 4:00 p.m will take place in the form of a video conference Teams