Techno-economic and resource assessment of electrolytic hydrogen and ammonia production

The primary goal of this PhD thesis has been to identify countries where land and water constraints could prompt the import of hydrogen or its derived carriers instead of relying on domestic production based on inland renewable resources. Except for Trinidad and Tobago, where hydrogen production from solar panels can lead to water scarcity, the assumed scenarios for hydrogen demand do not create water scarcity anywhere in the world if water scarcity is not already present. Instead, hydrogen production can exacerbate water scarcity in regions where it's already present. Countries with intense chemical industries such as Japan, South Korea, Trinidad and Tobago, and Western European countries including Belgium, could face land shortages for renewable electricity production to supply water electrolysis. These countries face the risk of an industrial relocation of production plants to regions with greater renewable energy availability. Mitigation strategies to address this risk include increasing the use of offshore wind, nuclear energy, or the import of hydrogen or hydrogen derived carriers from abroad. The second goal of this this PhD thesis has been to quantify the techno-economic potential for decentralized ammonia production. The industry can be restructured to supply a portion of fertilizer demand through decentralized ammonia production at or near the point of consumption. By relying on different predictions of the future cost of ammonia production from small-scale electrocatalysis or electrified Haber-Bosch, the cost-competitiveness of decentralized ammonia production was evaluated at a pixel, country, and continental level. Projected costs for decentralized ammonia production in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are compared with historical market prices from centralized production. The findings of this analysis suggest that cost-competitiveness for decentralized electric Haber-Bosch, supplying up to 5% (6 Mt/y) of global ammonia demand, could be achieved by 2030 when compared with the historical price of ammonia production, considering transport costs embedded within fertilizer prices, and up to 96% by 2030 when compared with ammonia production in case of supply shocks affecting the current centralized production of ammonia. The third goal of this research is to assess the viability of decentralized ammonia production for the specific case of Belgium to optimize the supply chain for ammonia fertilizers. Building upon the initial findings of the PhD thesis, Belgium is predicted to depend on imported molecules to achieve the net-zero target. To comprehensively explore the optimal routes for ammonia fertilizer supply, four distinct pathways have been compared. These include ammonia import via overseas shipping from exporting countries, hydrogen import through land transportation from neighbouring nations for domestic conversion into ammonia, centralized domestic ammonia production utilizing local renewable resources, and on-site small-scale decentralized fertilizer production according to findings of the second work of PhD thesis. This analysis takes into account a wide rage of costs, with ammonia import emerging as the optimal fertilizer source in the majority of the scenarios considered. Distributed ammonia production proves cost-competitive only under a 10% reduction in production costs, achievable through governmental subsidies on technology or higher-than-predicted technological advancements. Notably, ammonia production from imported hydrogen emerges as the optimal supply route solely when the cost of hydrogen import is at its lowest. Conversely, centralized ammonia production from domestic renewable resources emerges as the preferred supply source only when ammonia and hydrogen import prices are at their highest. This underscores the importance of considering various cost scenarios and production factors in determining the most efficient and sustainable ammonia supply strategy for Belgium's fertilizer industry.

Jury members :

• Prof. Francesco Contino (UCLouvain, Belgium), supervisor
• Prof. Alessandro Parente (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium), supervisor
• Prof. Paul Fisette (UCLouvain, Belgium), chairperson
• Prof. Patrick Hendrick (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium)
• Dr. Stefano Moret (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
• Dr. Paolo Gabrielli (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
• Prof. Hervé Jeanmart (UCLouvain, Belgium)

Speaker : Davide Tonelli

Visio conference link (microsoft.com)