26 August 2026 | 11:00 - 12:00
Prof. Tamás Bódai (Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Hungary) will give this seminar, organized by the ELI-C department.
The recently proposed data-driven ENSO forecast model, the XDROM+, is straightforward to extend to facilitate global mean surface air temperature forecast. But it also allows for an investigation concerning certain aspects of the notorious extreme heat back in 2023-2024.
I estimate that (1) the 2023 September extreme warm anomaly was a one-in-158-years event.
I also prove that (2) internal variability solely was responsible for it.
More precisely, I postulate that (3) a super event of short term coherence – and, therefore, quite possibly of an atmospheric nature – took place in 2023 August.
Indeed, (4) the response characteristic of the global mean temperature could not be detected to be nonlinear.
Yet, I verify that (5) global warming has accelerated in recent decades, but explain that it was (6) down to the acceleration of the anthropogenic climate forcing in about the same time period.
Prof. Tamás Bódai, is an associate professor at the Institute of Mathematics and Basic Science of the Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences.
His research areas include thermodynamics and dynamics of the climate system, edge states, tipping points and critical transitions in the climate system.