Finance Seminar: Pascal François

Comoment Risk in Corporate Bond Yields and Returns

Pascal François, HEC Montréal

This paper provides a comoment factor analysis of corporate bond returns using sector index bond portfolios. Corporate bond excess default return are decomposed into systematic default risk premiums rewarding investors for exposure to default risk and net excess returns adjusting for actual market conditions. Higher order comoments contribute positively to systematic default risk premiums. Furthermore, covariance and cokurtosis lower net excess returns as they trigger more value losses. We show a gradual substitution effect between covariation and tail risk contributions to the systematic risk premium for higher maturities, indicating a shift from the pricing of downgrading to outright default risk.

(with Stephanie Heck (CSSF Luxembourg), Georges Hübner (HEC Liège), Thomas Lejeune (National Bank of Belgium)