March 13, 2019
16:30 - 18:00
Bruxelles
National Bank of Belgium (Room A)
You are kindly invited to the Seminar in Financial Research co-organised by the National Bank of Belgium and the Belgian universities (KU Leuven, UA, UCL, UGent, ULB, ULg, UMons, UNamur, USaint-Louis, Vlerick and VUB)
by
William Goetzmann (Yale University)
on
Bubbles and Crashes: Perception vs. Reality
(co-authored by Dasol Kim (US Department of Treasury)).
Abstract
Market bubbles fascinate us despite being extremely rare. While many fear a crash after a boom, what goes up does not often come down. On the other hand, stock markets are more likely to recover after an extreme market decline. These patterns contradict common perceptions. My analysis with my coauthorof 25 years of survey data show that investors irrationally overestimate the probability of a market crash. Individual investors are particularly susceptible to priming by news of unrelated rare events.
Please reply by email to nbbfinancial.seminar@nbb.be if you wish to participate to this seminar or if you want to have an appointment with the speaker. Due to security measures it is necessary that you register before Tuesday evening March 12th. Without registration, you will not be allowed in the seminar room.
In case you want to access the NBB Parking (rue Montagne aux Herbes potagères 41), please also provide us with your name and the license plate of your car.
Kind regards,
P. Ilbas (NBB), H. Degryse (KU Leuven), M. Deloof (UA), L. Iania (UCL), K. Inghelbrecht (UGent), K. Oosterlinck (ULB), G. Hubner (ULg), L. Pozniak (UMons), J.Y. Gnabo (UNamur), A. Claes (USaint-Louis), D. Veredas (Vlerick) and S. Vanduffel (VUB)