David A. Sánchez-Páez, Bruno Schoumaker
(DEMO/UCLouvain)
The role of the proximate determinants and ideal family size on fertility stalls in capital cities of sub-Saharan Africa
Fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has stalled since the early 2000s. Studies to determine when and where the stalls are have mainly focused at the national level. Little is known about fertility stagnations in the capital cities and the reasons behind them. Therefore, using 116 DHS surveys from 30 sub-Saharan countries, we aim to study to what extent the proximate determinants of fertility and ideal family size have changed over time and whether they are connected to the periods of stagnation. In this regard, we find that the proximate determinants and ideal family size account for them. Increased sexual activity, without concern for contraceptive use, could lead to fertility stalls. Also, meeting contraceptive needs would have reduced the periods and intensity of fertility stagnation. Moreover, the decreased length of postpartum insusceptibility has contributed to plateauing. Finally, there is a correlation between the invariance in time of the ideal family size and periods of high fertility.