Midis de la recherche

Ulrich Nguemdjo Kamguem
(Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE) et Laboratoire Population Environnement et Développement (LPED))

Can migrations both respond to climatic constraints and improve the living conditions of rural households? Evidence from Niakhar (Senegal)

This paper analyzes the role of climate variation in household migrations on one hand and the effect of these migrations on the improvement of rural household living standards in Niakhar (Senegal) on another hand. Using data from the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System, we define two types of migration, short term and long-term migration. We use rainfall and the number of rainy days to investigate the effects of climate anomalies on each type of migration. We find that climate anomalies have a negative effect on short-term migrations and a positive effect on long-term migrations. Secondly, we use a survey on goods and pieces of equipment to define three objective measures of household living standards (productive assets index, consumer assets index and housing index). Using a conditional change score model, changes in living standard measurement and latent migration networks variables as instruments for migrations, we find a positive effect of short- and long-term migrations on the improvement of living standards indexes in Niakhar. However, long-term migration effects are more important than short-term ones. All in all, short term migration appears as a defensive response to climate change even if it allows, in the long run, to improve living standards, although long term migration seems more connected to an explicit strategy from households to escape poverty.