UCLouvain Economics Seminar: Sandra McNally

Entry Through the Narrow Door: The Costs of Just Failing High Stakes Exams

Sandra McNally (University of Surrey)

(Joint paper with Stephen Machin and Jenifer Ruiz Valenzuel)

In many countries, there are important thresholds in examinations which act as a gateway to higher levels of education and/or good employment prospects. We examine the consequences of just achieving (or failing to achieve) a Grade C in English in the national examinations that mark the end of compulsory schooling in England. We show that students of approximately the same ability have significantly different educational trajectories depending on whether or not they pass this threshold. Two years later, students who just achieve a Grade C have a higher probability of entering a high-level academic or vocational track that are pre-requisites for university and are also associated with good earning returns in the labour market. Those who fail to pass the threshold are also more likely to drop-out of education when they are only 18 years old. The moderately high effects of just passing or failing to pass the threshold in this high stakes exam are therefore a source of educational inequality with high potential longterm consequences for those affected.