Jing-Rong Zeng
(IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain)
will give a presentation on
In Search of Lost Peace: The Local Effects of Peacekeepers on Conflict Dynamics in Africa
Abstract: This study investigates the influence of peacekeeping intervention on the evolution of local conflict intensity, offering the first quantitative insights into their long-term effectiveness. Using a robust difference-in-differences approach and an event study design, it captures dynamic treatment effects annually post-deployment. The findings initially suggest a promising reduction in local fatalities due to the peacekeepers’ presence. However, accounting for unobserved country-specific differential trends nullifies the positive impacts. Upon peacekeepers’ withdrawal, local conflict may further escalate. Comparably, there is little evidence that peacekeepers are beneficial for revitalizing local economic activities, as indicated by nighttime lights.
Given the complex nature of peacekeeping operations amidst concurrent peace talks and political agreements, the study underscores the importance of country-specific macro trends. The paper diverges significantly from previous literature, which generally indicates a positive impact of peacekeepers’ presence on short-term conflict reduction. In contrast, the study provides evidence suggesting that the mere presence of peacekeepers may not be the primary causal factor in conflict stabilization. Furthermore, the results on the nightlights raise questions regarding the extent to which a peace dividend exists and highlight the challenges of economic recovery in conflict-affected areas.