The new era of central banking in a comparative perspective
Promoteur : Clément Fontan
Chercheur : Antoine de Cabanes
Financement : FNRS aspirant
Because central banks play an interface role between financial markets and democratic states, they are crucial regulatory authorities that are located at the heart of capitalist systems. When the Global Financial Crisis erupted, central banks radically moved beyond the role they were playing since the beginning of the 1990s’ as they became the lenders of last resort of both states and financial markets, in addition of gaining numerous additional competences. The starting point of this research project is to consider whether democratic controls over central banks’ activities have evolved in line with the extension of their role within the political realm. The research will consider three forms of democratic controls over central banks : legal control (judicial review and treaty change), political control (politics of nomination of central bank governors) and parliamentary control (hearings of central bankers). In order to understand the explaining factors driving the evolution of democratic controls, there will be comparative study on the following central banks : the ECB, the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ. The project will adopt a mixed method research design including discursive analysis and semi-structured interviews.
EU diplomacy in the current international regime complex on climate change
Promoteur : Tom Delreux
Chercheur : Joseph Earsom
Financement : PDR F.R.S. – FNRS
This project analyses the climate diplomacy of the European Union (EU) in the current international regime complex on climate change. The EU is a major player in global cli-mate governance, which no longer exclusively takes place in the framework of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change but rather in a broad range of internatio-nal institutions, including the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Maritime Organization, the Montreal Protocol or the Major Economies Forum. The enti-rety of the institutions where international climate policies are discussed and where the EU has to conduct is climate diplomacy is called the ‘international regime complex on climate change’. The proposed research project examines how and why the EU employs certain linkages between the institutions of the regime complex. Factors relating to both the EU’s internal functioning and the external setting in which the EU acts will be taken into account. The main innovation of the project is that it investigates the EU’s climate diplomacy towards the entire regime complex, whereas the current literature focuses on the EU’s diplo-macy in a single international institution only. By using systematic text analysis and the ‘theory-testing’ variant of processtracing methodology, the proposed research project will qualitatively study the EU’s climate diplomacy in the regime complex in the period 2011-2018. It uses originally collected empirical data, obtained through extensive qualita-tive fieldwork (primary document research and semi-struc-tured interviews in EU institutions and member states).
Greening finance? The political economy of the EU taxonomy
Chercheur : Constantin Brissaud
Promoteur : Clément Fontan
Financement : PDR
The European political authorities have launched a series of regulatory initiatives that could change the value of several hundred billion euros of financial assets (European Green Pact). The ability of the Green Deal to redirect financial flows in the face of the climate emergency relies heavily on a taxonomy for sustainable investments. This project seeks to answer the following question: what are the political factors influencing the making of the regulatory criteria of the taxonomy? To answer this question, the project mobilises conceptual frameworks that have already been used to analyse previous developments of the European financial governance and generates new empirical data, notably through privileged access to the field. More specifically, the project analyses how the economic patriotism of national leaders, the dynamics of intergovernmental negotiations and epistemic struggles between expert institutions influenced the legislative process leading to the creation of the taxonomy and the production of delegated acts by the Commission. The methodology employed combines quantitative techniques (network analysis, text analysis) with qualitative techniques (semi-directed interviews, text analysis).
The Scientific and the Political: Modelling and Forecasting the Economy in Policymaking Institutions
Chercheur : Aurélien Goutsmedt
Promoteur : Clément Fontan
Financement : FNRS
In the 2010s, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been criticized for systematically—and erroneously—forecasting that inflation would rise—and more recently for underestimating inflation. Are these forecasting errors the result of a political strategy: aiming either at alarming the public about inflation risks or at lessening these risks in other periods. Or is it the consequence of the inability of ECB economists and forecasting models to analyse correctly the Eurozone economy and the underlying inflation mechanisms?
At the crossroad of international political economy, the history of economics and the sociology of expertise, this research project argues that forecasting models, which have become an essential tool in the policy decision-making process, stand at the confluence of two different logics: a political logic and a scientific logic. To illustrate this tension, the project will focus on the role and place of economic models in the policy decision process, in two institutions: the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The main question of the project is: which factors determine the development and uses of forecasting models in policymaking institutions?
The production of the EU taxonomy of the 'sustainable finance'. How are financial organizations involved within EU green finance framework?
Chercheur Tanguy Brun
Promoteur : Clément Fontan
Financement : FSR
The ecological crisis facing contemporary economies has resulted in the constitution of a broad public and political problem that calls into question the pursuit of economic growth objectives. However, the transformations of western capitalist systems since the 1980s have left an important place for the private finance industries in the allocation of capital and the distribution of profits. How then have private finance institutions reacted to the emergence of this political problem, while their common matrix is profit maximization for themselves and their clients through capital intensification and the opening of new markets? In Europe, the promotion of a green finance standard initiated in 2010 led to the creation in 2016 and the implementation in 2020 of a nomenclature of economic and financial activities regarding environmental impact. This thesis aims to analyze the adaptations of the strategies of the actors of the field of private finance and their modes of lobbying in Europe during the transformation of this regulatory framework. To do so, this project aims to draw up the sociogenesis of one of the European institutions of green finance, the taxonomy, through the analysis of individual and institutional actors involved in its construction. The aim is to analyze how an individual belonging to a financial institution becomes legitimate to produce discourses and norms within the institutionalization process of green finance; and how the various actors in the financial field produce and disseminate new norms and justifications. This project is structured in three research axes. The first is the social and temporal delimitation of the private actors involved. More precisely, it is about mapping the institutionalization process of green finance at three key moments 2010, 2016 and 2020. The second axis is to study the involvement of private organizations in the constitution of this community. Finally, the third axis is the study of the evolution of the role of experts within this community and, by extension, of the influence of private organizations on the community of expertise. This project is based on an ethnographic analysis through interviews, a lexicometric analysis and then a qualitative analysis based on a documentary corpus, a network analysis as well as a geometric analysis based on a prosopographic database.
Is the European Union a Coherent Climate Leader? The impact of member state climate coalitions on the cohesion of EU climate policy making
Chercheur : Christopher Crellin
Promoteur : Tom Delreux
Financement : FNRS
The European Union’s (EU) ability to play a leadership role is at times fragile and threatened by the internal cohesion of the EU. Research on EU climate actorness attempts to comprehend the EUs role in world affairs examining variables that impact the actorness of the EU, like the internal cohesion of actors within the EU and the effectiveness of the EU’s foreign policy. The impact of coalitions on the cohesion of the EU, however, has not yet been considered, although coalitions play a major role in policymaking. This research will study the network of inter- and extra-European Union member state (MS) climate coalitions and their impact on the cohesion of EU climate policymaking by answering: How do inter- and extra- European Union member state climate coalitions impact the cohesion of EU climate policymaking? Three dimensions of cohesion will be examined: preference, procedural-tactical and output cohesion. The project is addressed in two stages. Stage one will map the coalition network, between 2009 and 2023, that member states participate in, drawing on social network analysis and the subsequent packages in ‘R’, on policy documents, press reports and a large-N survey. Stage two will explain the impact of the structural and relational changes of the network, overtime, on the cohesion of EU climate policymaking, utilising qualitative text analysis on press reports and policy documents, videos of Council deliberations and interviews. The project will create new knowledge by unveiling the participation of MS in inter- and extra- EUMS climate coalitions to explain and deepen our understanding of the impact of coalition structures and relations on the cohesion of the EU.
Embedding the Parliament. Understanding the multifaceted relationship between the European Parliament and the EU negotiator during the negotiation of international agreements
Chercheur : Marine Bardou
Promoteur : Tom Delreux
Financement : FNRS
This research project analyses the multifaceted relationship between the European Parliament (EP) and the Commission during the negotiation of international agreements. Since the entry into force of the Lisbon treaty in 2009, the EP can veto the conclusion of most international agreements. The negotiations are generally conducted by the Commission, but in addition to its veto, the EP can intervene in various formal and informal ways. For example, it can adopt resolutions or (in)formally contact the Commission. Hence, the EP can get involved in negotiations in a variety of policy areas, ranging from trade to transport, with over 400 agreements concluded by the EU since 2009. However, the literature has marginally explored the implications of EP involvement for the EP-Commission relationship. Furthermore, this relationship has not been analysed in a cross-case, systematic way. Therefore, this research project asks: how is the EP involved when the Commission negotiates international agreements, under which conditions and with which consequences? The EP-Commission relationship is considered as shaped by both institutional activities and the perceptions of these activities. In order to capture this multifaceted nature, I rely on a three-step, mixed-method research design. The first step maps how the EP is involved in negotiations and the type(s) of relation hence developed with the Commission. It combines sequence analysis and a qualitative analysis of daily practices. The second step explains the variations in EP involvement and in the related relation with the Commission uncovered at the first step. It relies upon both regressions and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). The third step explores the consequences of these variations upon EP influence on the negotiations, utilizing theory-testing process-tracing. Looking at the EP-Commission relationship as multifaceted allows to interweave insights rooted in both cost-benefit and ideational approaches. In addition, the cross-case approach provides a more comprehensive picture of EP involvement in the negotiation of international agreements. Thus, the research project brings a fresh perspective on EP empowerment in a domain in which parliamentary powers are traditionally limited: foreign policy.
Financial regulation stringency in the EU
Chercheur : Santiago Dierckx
Promoteur : Tom Delreux
Administrative staff as lawmakers: explaining the involvement of officials in EU legislative decision making and its policy implications
Chercheur : Thomas Laloux
Promoteur : Tom Delreux
While unelected staff often play an important role in legislative decision-making, little attention has been paid to explaining the extent of their involvement across legislative files, nor the implications of this involvement on the content of legislation. Yet, these issues carry normative implications, as the involvement of unelected staff in the lawmaking process may pose problems of democratic legitimacy. However, this depends on their role in the process and the ensuing consequences on policies. This project aims to fill this gap by answering two following questions: (1) What explains elected officials' decisions about the level of staff involvement inlawmaking?; and (2) What is the impact of this staff involvement on the resulting legislation, and how can this impact be explained? On the theoretical level, the principal-agent model is used to model the relationships between elected actors (as constituents) and staff (as agents). Empirically, this project focuses on the EU legislative process, which is a good case for answering the research questions because of the important, yet varying, role that staff play therein. Each question is addressed through a mixed-method design, in which quantitative and qualitative data are collected and analysed.
Finally moving? Party Europeanization in a politicized context
Chercheur : Niels Gheyle
Promoteur : Tom Delreux
Financement : FNRS
The goal of this project is to untangle the relationship between party Europeanization and the politicization of the EU. 15 years ago, a large and seminal study found little to no evidence of party Europeanization (Poguntke et al., 2007), leading to serious normative concerns about a democratic disconnect in the EU that could fuel Euroskepticism (Ladrech, 2007). At the time though, this indication of remoteness of daily political life from EU dynamics was rationally explained: the EU is hardly politicized, so vote-maximizing parties do not integrate EU-related dynamics into their organization. In the last 15 years, however, many scholars have studied a surge of the ‘politicization of the EU’ (De Wilde, 2011), raising expectations about increased party Europeanization in the current context. Yet there is no empirical evidence available to assess this claim, let alone theorize the actual relationship between party Europeanization and (the type of) politicization. Through a combination of a large-scale survey in 15 Member States, and the process-tracing of a rational choice inspired mechanism underlying (non-)adaptation, this project aims to answer two research questions: (i) what is the degree of party Europeanization and politicization in different Member States? (ii) how can we explain the increase (or absence) in party Europeanization under different politicized circumstances?
Defederalized European Union in the name of democracy? When populism drives to dis-integration.
Chercheur : Nicolas Arens
Promotrice : Virginie Van Ingelgom
Financement : F.R.S - FNRS
In a context of multiple crises, the theories of European integration should now include the opposite movement of "disintegration". This project defines the disintegration of the EU as "defederalisation", i.e. an outcome of confederalism as the converse process to classical historical integrations. The research asks whether this movement is supported by a democratic critique that is currently determined, in Europe and elsewhere, in a populist discourse. In order to articulate the institutional axes of "European confederalism" and the normative axes of "popular sovereignty", the project uses a method of political theory that returns to "classical" thinkers. The "indirect topicality" of political theory authors is intended to reveal the conceptual innovations of European studies, while at the same time normalising them regarding the history of thought. On the question of confederalism, the project plans to return to Montesquieu's writings on federation and the American debate between federalists (Publius) and anti-federalists (Brutus). These references will indicate that the institutional order cannot work without, in terms of legitimacy, a normative order. To deal with this, and the question of populism that results from it, the project will then return to Rousseau's writings on the European federation and on the critics toward Abbé de Saint-Pierre, in order to characterize the discourse of passions and affects in the claims of the sovereignty of the (national) people. The "defederalization" of the EU under the impulse of a populist ideology will then be examined as a "disintegrative" theoretical articulation that competes and faces classical integrative theories.