Bruno Masquelier, UCLouvain

March 01, 2019

14:30 - 15:30


ISBA - C115 (Seminar Room Bernoulli)

Applied statistics workshop 
Bruno Masquelier, UCLouvain
"Global, regional, and national levels and trends in mortality among older children (5-9) and young adolescents  (10-14)"


Under-five mortality fell by more than half from 1990 to 2016 and there is a solid evidence base to track progress towards child survival goals. By contrast, little is known on how risks of dying among older children and young adolescents have evolved over recent years. We estimate levels and trends in mortality in children aged 5-14 years for 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. We created a database with 5530 country-year data points referring to the age group 5-14. Mortality rates were obtained from nationally representative birth histories, recent household deaths reported in population censuses, nationwide vital registration and sample registration systems. These data were used in a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model to generate smoothed trends with 90% uncertainty intervals in the probability that a child aged 5 would die before reaching age 15. Globally, this probability was 7.5 deaths per 1000 children aged 5 (90% uncertainty interval 7.2-8.3) in 2016, rather less than one-fifth of the risk of dying between birth and the fifth birthday. Mortality risk in this age group fell by 51% (46-54%) between 1990 and 2016, despite not being specifically targeted by health interventions. The annual number of deaths declined over the same period from 1.7 million (1.7-1.8) to 1 million (0.9-1.1). Increased efforts are required to accelerate progress in reducing mortality among older children and ensure that they benefit from health policies and interventions as much as younger children.

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