Vincent Bremhorst, SMCS, UCLouvain

May 03, 2019

14:30 - 15:30


ISBA - C115 (Seminar Room Bernoulli)

Applied statistics workshop 
Vincent Bremhorst, SMCS, UCLouvain
"Fertility progression in Germany: An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models"


In fertility research, the most commonly used models are proportional hazards speci cations, such as the piecewise exponential or the Cox model. Although they are widely used, these models have a serious shortcoming: they are unable
to separate the impact of the covariates on the timing of births from the factors that influence the ultimate parity progression. As they cannot di fferentiate between timing and quantum, they often produce misleading results. An example of this shortcoming is that models which try to unravel the impact of female education on second and third birth progressions tend to generate confusing estimates.
In this talk, using the promotion time cure model, we will try to separate the e ffect of the woman's and partner's educational attainments on the probability and on the timing of a second birth in West Germany.

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